The new parliament of Kazakhstan may turn out to be even more Russophobic

Last week in Kazakhstan, the president announced the dissolution of the lower house of parliament and the appointment of early elections to the Mazhilis and maslikhats, which should carry out the final purge of representative bodies of power from Nazarbayev’s henchmen. But in the end, parliament will turn out to be just as tame and even more anti-Russian.

Voting day is set for March 19, although elections were not supposed to take place until 2025. This shift in timing was predictable and announced by Kassym-Jomart Tokayev last year, when, along with amendments to the Constitution, a quota of 30% was introduced for deputies from single-mandate constituencies.

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Therefore, along with the extraordinary presidential elections, which took place on November 20 last year, when the current president received more than 81% of the votes, it was announced that in the spring of 2023, an extraordinary election of deputies to the Mazhilis and local representative bodies of power - maslikhats - would take place.

In general, this move is obvious and logical, since after the failed January coup of last year, as a result of an intra-elite agreement between the winning group led by Tokayev and the losing faction of Nazarbayev a temporary consensus and status quo was reached, with the once ruling family agreeing to the complete transfer of all power to the new president and his team in exchange for a promise not to initiate criminal prosecution.

The moment of dissolution of the Mazhilis on January 19.

As a result of this, a final purge of Nazarbayev’s proteges from the parliament and local representative authorities takes place. Now they will be filled with loyal deputies, carefully selected by the current presidential administration, in addition, they will be diluted with several new pro-Kayev parties, which were registered literally a few days before the dissolution of the Mazhilis.

We are talking about the newly formed party of national-liberal pro-Western entrepreneurs “Respublica” and the same national-liberal Kazakhstani green party “Baytak”. Very little is known about these parties; what is striking is that they were registered so quickly.

Founding congress of the party of liberal entrepreneurs Respublica.

On the way to receiving the coveted documents, there are two more of the same kind, but national-conservative in name, which are not known to anyone at all - “El Tagdyry” (“Fate of the People”) and “Urpaktar Zhalgastygy” (“Continuation of Generations”). True, the latter will no longer be allowed to participate in the elections.

The ruling party "Amanat" (formerly Nur-Otan).

_{It is noteworthy that all the currently existing eight parties in the country, together with the former Nur-Otan, renamed Amanat, occupy the same political national-liberal or nationalist spectrum. That is, they all a priori defend patriotic positions, and some, like the right-wing liberal parliamentary “Ak Zhol” (“Bright Path”), strongly advocate for Kazakhstan’s exit from the EAEU, the Customs Union and the CSTO.}

Among the members of all these parties there are both outright neo-Nazis and well-known ideologists of Kazakh nationalism, such as Aidos Sarym. And therefore they will spin the same linguistic and national-populist card, inevitably sliding into Russophobia and the need to “overcome the colonial past” in the consciousness and political history of the republic.

At the same time, the only socially oriented party “People's Congress of Kazakhstan” of the famous Soviet poet Olzhas Suleimenov, which was created back in May last year and stated the need to deepen integration within the EAEU, was never registered under far-fetched pretexts.

_{Therefore, there will simply be no supporters of rapprochement with Russia from among the party formations in the new parliament and maslikhats.}

And all these changes are presented by propaganda as the end of the Nazarbayev era and the transition to “New Kazakhstan.” But in reality, we are seeing a reproduction of Nazarbayev’s previous political technology of organizing and holding permanent early elections, when opponents and oppositionists were left no chance to prepare and nominate consolidated candidates, as well as build a single platform.

Now this is partly directed both against Nazarbayev’s former henchmen, who did not find a place in the new structure and party lists, and against some of the oligarchic projects that cannot yet go through the registration process.

Obviously, the undesirable candidates in single-mandate constituencies will not pass through the sieve of the election commission, since it is required to make a significant cash deposit, and the slightest inaccuracies in reporting and declarations lead to the immediate removal of applicants for a deputy seat from the race.

Extraordinary presidential and parliamentary elections are held long before the end of the previous term in order to carry them out quickly now in a situation of relative socio-economic stability, when the current president still has some credibility among the population, since experts declare 2024-2025 a period even greater turbulence and acute social discontent with falling living standards and lack of prospects.

Therefore, the main task of the ruling team is to sit at all costs for the next seven years, imitating some superficial changes, while not allowing the system to become unbalanced. As a result, one can see a desire to preserve all possible processes in society, adopting a conscious reaction in the form of strengthening the nationalist component in the ideology and rhetoric of officials and politicians.

_{That is, as a result of these hasty elections, we will see not three, but five tame parties and 29 single-mandate members out of 98 deputies in the lower house of parliament, among whom will be mainly national populists. At the local level, the “controlling stake” of shares will also remain with the presidential administration.}

That is, we should expect that the new Mazhilis will be even more pronounced nationalist, Russophobic and anti-Russian. Of course, the main majority of parliament will be a mindless swamp, but for sure a springboard will be provided for such figures who will popularize the agenda of rapprochement with the West, Turkey and the Arab world in opposition to the EAEU and for a break with Russia.

At the same time, disruptions are already being observed and serious incidents are being observed, showing a lack of unity in the elite and among the bureaucrats, many of whom do not share the nationalist and anti-Russian guidelines coming down from above.

So, last week, deputy Azamat Abildaev from the right-wing liberal party Ak Zhol unexpectedly told the American publication Azattyk (Freedom) about his support for the North Military District and Putin’s policies and said that Zelensky would inevitably be arrested by his own people before the summer of this year .

The party faction expelled him retroactively after the dissolution of the lower house. But in this story, the very fact of such a demarche is encouraging, since previously for such a thing one could lose one’s freedom and absolutely lose one’s job. Now that some officials and deputies do not find themselves in Tokayev’s formations, they are beginning to declare pro-Russian views.

The famous Russian political scientist Nikita Mendkovich, who criticizes the leadership of Kazakhstan for pursuing a policy of “Ukrainization” of the republic, commented on the scandal as follows:

“This is an indicator that “Kazakh nationalism” is a virtual phenomenon. There were communists appointed by the Kazakh AP, who at the first whistle renamed themselves the People's Party and abandoned their principles. The nationalist parties are, in fact, the same officials-appointees or politicians who make their careers on grants from American foundations. When the situation changes, a couple of hundred convinced Nazis will flee to the USA, and the rest will suddenly begin to embroider the letter Z on their clothes and remind that Kazakhstan has always been and remains part of the Russian world.”

This really cannot be ruled out in the event of significant successes and Russia’s victory in the Northern Military District, but for now the Tokayev administration maintains the political continuity of the course towards building a mono-ethnic state, the ideological core of which remains the ideology of the superiority of one nation. Accordingly, the process of “Ukrainization” continues.