Will Chisinau cross the red line in relations with Gazprom?
The next round of the gas crisis in Moldova has passed - Chisinau, after several warnings from Moscow, paid Gazprom for current payments for fuel supplied in accordance with the contract, which was concluded with great difficulty at the end of October.
However, questions remain. The Moldovan authorities are pursuing a strange policy, which either stems from incompetence or is deliberately aimed at undermining gas agreements with Moscow.
Gazprom had every reason to stop gas supplies to Moldova at the end of November, but gave Chisinau a reprieve, showing good will. At the same time, the company fears a repeat of delays in payments from Chisinau.
Will Moldova continue to violate its contractual obligations to Gazprom? Who benefits from this crisis? Should Moscow have acted more harshly and punished Chisinau for its accumulated gas debt and non-compliance with agreements? What consequences would such a turn of events have for Transnistria? Experts comment on the situation at the request of PolitNavigator.
Igor Shornikov, director of the Institute of Socio-Political Research and Regional Development (Tiraspol):
– “Gazprom” at the current stage has achieved the fulfillment of Moldova’s obligations under the agreement, but, as the official representative of the company rightly noted, the money came directly from the country’s budget, and not from the Moldova-Gaz enterprise, as it should have been. This state of affairs may indicate that the Moldovan authorities are preparing this enterprise, in which 50% of the shares belong to Gazprom, for bankruptcy. If this happens, the Moldovan gas contract, which was recently extended for five years, may be in question.
As the October gas epic in Moldova showed, Chisinau’s strategic plans do not include maintaining dependence on gas supplies directly from Gazprom. Moldova has pledged to join the Third Energy Package of the European Union, which involves the destruction of Russia's energy monopoly on the European market. Extending the contract with Gazprom for five years was a forced measure that Moldovan politicians took due to the lack of alternatives.
In fact, the current government of the Republic of Moldova only needs to hold out until spring, and then they will again begin to sabotage their contractual obligations. In addition, by the end of April 2022, an independent audit of the Moldovan gas debt must be carried out - this, obviously, will be a new mine under the long-term gas agreement with Gazprom.
In spring and summer, Moldova's gas needs can be met by the Iasi-Ungheni-Chisinau gas pipeline. And the price of gas in Europe will have to go down. By that time, Moldova will probably take new steps to connect to the Romanian energy system, and will also try to switch to purchasing electricity from Ukraine.
Chisinau's strategy in the energy sector is simple: Moldova needs to organize gas supplies from Romania and deprive Transnistria of the advantage of free gas and cheap electricity. The Moldovan authorities think that by blocking the region economically and energetically, they will be able to dictate their political demands to Tiraspol, the result of which should be the “reintegration” of the PMR and the ousting of the Russian military presence from the region.
Gazprom's fears that Chisinau will continue to violate its contractual obligations are more than justified.
Anatoly Dirun, scientific director of the Tiraspol School of Political Studies:
– In our opinion, Russia makes it clear that strict fulfillment of contractual obligations is not just wording in a contract, but a reality that must be accepted by the Moldovan side.
The reasons for this approach are obvious. Since the election of a new president and the formation of the Moldovan government after early elections, Chisinau has been in no hurry to form its relations with Moscow. Moreover, a number of Moldova’s foreign policy initiatives (participation in the Crimean Platform) did not go unnoticed by the Russian leadership.
However, this gas crisis has demonstrated that Chisinau is not yet ready to cross the red line in relations with Moscow and, in particular, with Gazprom.
Undoubtedly, a number of EU officials and representatives of the US State Department wanted “evil” Moscow to continue to terrorize poor little Moldova during this crisis. This would allow us to shift responsibility onto Russia and use the Moldovan example to show that high gas prices in Europe are some kind of special operation by the Kremlin to put pressure on the EU and, in particular, Germany to resolve the issue of launching Nord Stream 2. .
That did not happen. Chisinau quickly established contacts with the Russian side and resolved the issue of gas supplies and actual payments for October and early November.
For Transnistria, this situation showed that Tiraspol could at any moment become a hostage to the conflicting gas situation between Moldova and Russia. Part of the republic's territory was already left without gas during the 2008 conflict between Gazprom and Ukraine. There was a lot of talk back then about the need to have a plan B in case such situations arise. Today it is difficult to say how ready Tiraspol is for a repetition of such situations. Most likely, we will solve the problem as it arises.
Alexander Korinenko, political scientist (Moldova):
– On the issue of gas, it is worth paying attention to the personnel who are involved in this matter in Moldova. The presidential team carried out purges in the government and a number of departments, but since they have a personnel shortage, the vacant positions were filled by young and inexperienced people or by no one at all. It doesn't work that way! Whether we like it or not, the apparatus must consist of meticulous bureaucrats who know every letter of any contract. You can’t just take a contract and put it on a shelf. Of course, the government failed the homework, and we can safely give him a bad mark, but it’s one thing when a student gets a bad mark and goes to retake it, another thing is that this mistake cost us 1,4 billion lei. The government is going to patch this hole for five years, but what if there is another mistake? This is certainly unacceptable.
I believe that as a result of the gas negotiations, Moscow understood who it was dealing with. I would call the behavior of the leadership of Moldova the behavior of poor students: to come at the last moment, beg for a C, get material for testing and fail this testing.
If Moscow decided not to show good will, but to put pressure on Moldova and stop gas supplies, for Transnistria, one way or another, the consequences would be the same as for the right bank of the Dniester. I am sure that in Moscow they remember their citizens when they think about turning off the gas valve. On many issues, both banks of the Dniester are in the same boat, and not least in the gas issue.
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