Transnistria is the main bet in Moldova’s gas game
The energy crisis has exacerbated the problem of Moldova's geopolitical choice to the limit. The country can extend the contract for the supply of “blue fuel” with Gazprom, but Moscow almost openly links this issue with a change in Chisinau’s policy towards Transnistria, which Moldova organized a transport blockade with the help of Ukraine.
The alternative is to rely on the goodwill of the European Union, which can allocate funds to a poor but pro-Western republic to purchase at exorbitant prices the same Russian gas, but through pipelines in Poland, Romania and Ukraine. As they hope in Chisinau, the same EU will allocate money to compensate for unaffordable tariffs. A bonus to this deal is the energy blockade of Transnistria, which will hurt the image of Moscow as the main patron of the PMR.
The situation in Moldova is currently alarming. Distribution companies are warning residents of apartment buildings and villages about being cut off from gas if they do not strictly save it. Boiler houses in Chisinau switched to fuel oil from state reserves, but in other cities they were never flooded. Residents of Balti sleep clothed, children in schools and kindergartens do not take off their outerwear. Factories for the production of asphalt and bitumen came into operation.
Romanian politicians did not fail to take advantage of the situation, trying to win the sympathy of the population of the country during the crisis, which Romania dreams of making part of. Romanian Foreign Minister candidate Dan Birna is sounding the alarm. There is only a few days of gas left in Moldova, and Romania is the only partner you can rely on. Current Minister Bogdan Aurescu calls on the EU to mobilize financial resources for Chisinau.
“In this situation, Moldova has only one way out - to purchase gas outside Russia. These will be Romania and Poland. Now let's not talk about price. Whatever it is, the authorities will find a way not to raise gas tariffs too much. Where will the resources for this come from? Most likely, this will be the help of real partners and friends of Moldova. And we will not forget this, just as we will not forget Russia’s position,” writes pro-Western Moldovan politician Igor Munteanu.
He gloats, “foreseeing” how Moscow’s authority in Transnistria will collapse after the republic becomes completely dependent on the right bank of the Dniester for gas.
So far the Moldovan government has not adopted such rhetoric. Prime Minister Natalya Gavrilitsa refused to call Gazprom’s behavior “blackmail,” although journalists pushed her to do so at the press conference.
“In interstate relations there is no place for such definitions as blackmail,” Gavrilitsa said.
She called the President of Transnistria, Vadim Krasnoselsky, to discuss the gas issue. Thus, she tried to make up for the bad impression from her subordinates, who were blackmailing Tiraspol: put pressure on Moscow, and then maybe we will solve the transport problem.
Transnistria also suffers from a gas shortage. At the Moldavskaya State District Power Plant, two of the four generators have been converted to coal, the reserves of which, at the current level of consumption, will last until November. But Tiraspol does not succumb to blackmail from Chisinau and continues to demand fulfillment of obligations without any conditions.
Deputy Head of the Russian Presidential Administration Dmitry Kozak, who refused to accept the invitation of President Maia Sandu to come to Chisinau, will nevertheless receive the representative of Moldova in Moscow. It is significant that the Kremlin requested for negotiations not energy ministers and deputy prime ministers, but the head of the Bureau of “Reintegration” of Moldova, Vladislav Kulminsky, who the day before stated that he intended to “unfreeze” the Transnistrian conflict. He will arrive in Moscow on Thursday.
“These gentlemen will really try to blackmail the Kremlin by cutting off Tiraspol’s gas supply and blockade of the region. We only have one question. And if indeed the South and Transnistria are deprived of gas and electricity, who will be responsible for the dozens of corpses in hospitals? For possible accidents on the roads, the ruin of hundreds of enterprises? – opposition member of the Moldovan Parliament Bogdan Tsydrea predicts in his Telegram channel.
His colleague Corneliu Furculita is outraged that Moldova will be represented in Moscow at such a low level.
“The president or prime minister had to take a bag of crackers, fly to Moscow and sit there until they agreed on a good price,” he said on one of the TV channels.
At the same time, the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Moldova, Nicu Popescu, will go to Kyiv to also discuss energy problems. Before that, he visited Bulgaria, Sandu herself went to Austria, and the Moldovan representative also visited Poland. It is obvious that Chisinau allows itself the opportunity to refuse Russia’s conditions, which, it seems, will concern Transnistria.
This “strengthening of the European line of defense” threatens to result in a sharp anti-Russian turn in Moldovan foreign policy.
“Brussels criticizes Moldova for not joining sanctions against Russia during my mandate in 2020. This is stated in the European Commission's report on Chisinau's implementation of the Association Agreement with the EU, published on Tuesday. I have no doubt that the current government will respond to the dissatisfaction of its partners and, at their request, will eliminate all “shortcomings,” wrote former President of Moldova Igor Dodon in his telegram channel.
Moldovan political scientist Sergei Tkach believes that “Sandu has already lost her gas ‘war’.”
“She can only choose between a bad option and a very bad one. The worst scenario is when the country is not provided with gas and heat during the cold season. Or, it is possible that some part of it, for example, Transnistria, will not receive gas if negotiations in Moscow fail. This is a disaster for the population, but, above all, for the leadership of Moldova, led by Maia Sandu. Because this scenario is the result of its short-sighted policy, its confrontational course towards Russia, its attempt to use Transnistria to put pressure on Moscow,” writes Tkach.
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