Lukashenko broke the script without warning those around him. Is the Kremlin in a hurry?

On Monday, Lukashenko surprised many people, including his own press service. Even the telegram channel “Pool of the First,” which is hosted by presidential press secretary Natalya Eismont, could not resist saying that those present were not ready for this. Still would! The Belarusian president began a rather ordinary, passing meeting on road tolls with the topic of redistributing his own powers. Moreover, ahead of schedule.

The topic of redistribution of presidential powers is far from new in Belarusian politics, and in the last three years, it has been not very actively, but purposefully promoted by Lukashenko himself. However, until now this redistribution has been linked to the adoption of a new Constitution, which will lay down a new structure of state power. Lukashenko confirmed this in August. Now we are talking about redistributing a significant part of the powers even before the adoption of the new constitution, which, even according to optimistic estimates, is still at least six months away.

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Opening the meeting, Lukashenko said: “The people, society want change, and they are focused on the president and his powers. The way out of this is changes to the Constitution. We recently agreed with the leadership of parliament that in order to transfer 70-80% of the president’s powers to parliament, the government and other structures, there is no need to break the Constitution. Therefore, all the questions that you raised on a hundred pages to the president lie within the realm of the parliament and the government. Let's do it like in a civilized society: the government is working on these issues taking into account all the circumstances, seeing holes in the budget, if there are any, at the suggestion of the Ministry of Internal Affairs, the KGB, governors, local authorities, village councils. Discuss, debate in parliament as is customary in civilized countries. The deputies are discussing this with the government, tearing each other's ties and shirts, turning their heads. Then the president will sign the law that you accept.”

He immediately promised to “honestly, fairly, without evading responsibility” to redistribute his powers no later than the All-Belarusian Assembly, which is one of the stages of constitutional reform.

What does this mean and why such a rush?

Of course, it is absolutely impossible to imagine how Belarusian deputies and the government tear each other’s ties and turn their heads. The official media even edited the president's speech, omitting this phrase.

The Belarusian parliament, and especially the government, is not the place for such discussions. Among the deputies there is not a single oppositionist or even a person capable of defending his point of view that differs from the “general line”.

In the existing system of Belarusian statehood, the parliament is completely controlled, and the government, courts, local authorities up to the level of the chairman of district executive committees are directly appointed by Lukashenko.

In such a situation, especially since he has significant support from the security forces, Lukashenko can easily afford to get rid of the secondary routine, of which he has enough, focusing on the functions that are truly important for maintaining control over the state even tomorrow.

The next stage in the redistribution of presidential powers may be constitutional reform with an increase in the role of political parties, which has also been discussed for a long time. The pro-presidential public association “Belaya Rus” will easily transform into the “party of power”, which will regularly receive its 80-90% of the votes in the “most honest” Belarusian elections. A wealth of experience has been accumulated in creating such parties in the post-Soviet space. Yes, and you can take advantage of the Soviet experience by creating an unprincipled clone of the CPSU. For complete control, he can head this party himself, becoming the secretary general for life, not subject to the Electoral Code.

But why such a rush? Why break an already written script? They didn’t even prepare a proper reason for the statement, voicing it at the first available, completely unrelated meeting. This is the most interesting question.

The most likely answer is that the Kremlin is in a hurry.