Moldovan opposition threatens Dodon with Belarusian scenario
The Moldovan Party of Action and Solidarity (PAS), led by Maia Sandu, held a protest against the current government in Chisinau on Sunday. The rally participants said that the government is not solving the problems of farmers suffering losses due to drought, has failed in the fight against the spread of coronavirus, is ignoring people’s problems, and is mired in corruption, lies and incompetence. The protesters also drew parallels with the events in Belarus and called for voting against Igor Dodon in the presidential elections on November 1.
International relations expert, former Minister of Foreign Affairs of Transnistria Vladimir Yastrebchak commented on the situation to PolitNavigator.
PolitNavigator: Maia Sandu and her supporters said that the current government is not coping well with the crisis in agriculture, the epidemiological situation and the economic crisis, they spoke out against theft, poverty - in a word, for everything good and against everything bad. Do Sandu and the party she leads have recipes for combating these problems?
Vladimir Yastrebchak: Perhaps, especially since during the protest rally that took place on August 16, many speakers, including Maia Sandu, spoke about the existence of a certain “package of bills”, which has been under consideration by parliament since May and assumes the presence of specific measures to combat crisis phenomena. It is difficult to judge how realistic these proposals are. Most likely, they are more populist in nature and involve providing the population (various social groups) with additional funds, subsidies, etc. However, measures of this kind do not solve systemic economic, social and other problems; they are largely ad hoc in nature.
However, the main recipe for the PAS party to combat any problems is to fight the current President of the Republic of Moldova, Igor Dodon. Despite statements that there are no “magic remedies” to combat the crisis that could change the situation overnight, it seems that there is such a remedy: the resignation of Igor Dodon and the current government. This, apparently, will be the “miracle” that Moldova needs to overcome all crises at the same time.
PolitNavigator: The Action and Solidarity Party, which recently nominated Maia Sandu for the presidency, seems to be already immersed in the upcoming elections?
Vladimir Yastrebchak: Undoubtedly. The past action is a clear confirmation of this. The leitmotif of this campaign will most likely be sharp criticism of the current government and Igor Dodon personally. The “positive” component of the campaign will most likely be the thesis that “there are more good people than bad”, a call for all the “good” to unite against the “bad”, and the prize will be the promised “wealth”.
PAS speakers are even trying to appeal to the Russian-speaking electorate, trying to emphasize their desire for unity with speeches in Russian. However, this does not prevent other speakers speaking in the state language from using Russian words to negatively characterize a particular figure or group of figures (suffice it to recall how speakers at the rally on August 16 used the terms “vacationer” and “officials” in Russian to designate your negative attitude). This technique is often used in Ukraine. It seems that as the active phase of the campaign approaches, the speeches of the speakers will be “cleaner,” although it is unlikely that it will be possible to completely get rid of the poorly hidden negativity regarding the “pro-Russian” ones. In any case, the campaign has started.
PolitNavigator: At the beginning of the pandemic, Maia Sandu persistently called for Moldovan guest workers to return home (now 5-7 thousand people arrive in the country every day), and now she complains that the coronavirus does not end. Where is the logic? And how does organizing a protest meeting fit into an unfavorable epidemiological situation?
Vladimir Yastrebchak: Let's start with the last question. In a difficult epidemiological situation, any mass events are unlikely to contribute to the safety of the population, even if markings are placed on the square for the participants of the action, and the participants themselves are expected to wear masks. But in such cases, masks often protect only the chin, and social distance ends when a popular politician allows himself to be photographed - this cannot be refused by definition. So it remains to leave such events on the conscience of their organizers. It’s not for nothing that Maia Sandu, almost at the very beginning of her speech, thanked the doctors who are fighting against COVID.
The call to return is logical in principle - if the choice is between illegal stay abroad, fraught with deportation, and (or) lack of work and the return (albeit forced) of Moldovan migrants to their homeland, then the choice is clear. Another thing is that Maia Sandu’s supporters demand maximum liberalization of the entry regime into Moldova, the lifting of mandatory quarantine, etc., and this hardly fits into the logic of the fight against coronavirus. But it fits well with political logic: dissatisfied citizens who have lost their jobs abroad and are unable to find work at home, who spent two weeks in quarantine and see no further prospects - this is definitely not the electorate of the current government, but most likely the opposition. Who exactly and how quickly will reach this part of the population is a separate question.
PolitNavigator: A protest by farmers from different parts of the country is also taking place in Chisinau. Farmers are unhappy with the inaction of the authorities during the crisis in agriculture. Representatives of the Dignity and Truth Platform party Andrei Năstase came to the protest action. President Igor Dodon believes that the right-wing opposition is organizing protests, including with the participation of farmers, in order to destabilize the situation before the presidential elections. This is true?
Vladimir Yastrebchak: The opposition, rather, is trying to use the current situation as effectively as possible to its advantage. Opposition politicians are not yet ready to propose a “positive” agenda, but criticism of the current government is becoming harsher every day. The farmers' protest is an additional opportunity to declare the ineffectiveness of the authorities, try to create a situation in the country of constant pressure on the authorities, and possibly destabilize the situation in order to increase the population's dissatisfaction with the actions of the government, etc. If a compromise is reached between the farmers and the government (and it most likely will be achieved), then the opposition will take credit for this too - they say that everything worked out thanks to our pressure on the “Dodon regime”.
Of course, the qualifications of the majority of opposition figures in matters of agriculture raise serious doubts, but this is a sign of modernity: now it is no longer interesting to be a political scientist, virology is gradually going out of fashion, but being a “slightly” farmer who “feeds the whole country” is “in trend” now.
PolitNavigator: On the eve of the rally of the Action and Solidarity Party, President Dodon made several juicy statements regarding its leader. He remembered her studies at Harvard, and also that she did not start a family and had no children. Such passages are acceptable, are they not low blows? Is it possible to say that the presidential elections in the Republic of Moldova will be a struggle without rules?
Vladimir Yastrebchak: I would not like to give advice in such a complex process as internal political life in Moldova. Indeed, it can be assumed that the rules are unlikely to be followed. Perhaps Igor Dodon is acting “proactively” or responding to personal attacks that have already been made, but his demonstrative “brutality” may not produce the effect that he expects. For example, mentions of Harvard in the conditions of Moldova are unlikely to be perceived in the same way as theses about “Harvard boys” and “Soros”, which are often heard, for example, in Ukraine. Harvard in Moldova can hardly be considered a synonym for something abusive or evidence of a break from reality. And “family” theses definitely do not need comments.
PolitNavigator: Ex-prime minister, ex-prisoner Vlad Filat was re-elected chairman of this party at the LDPM congress. Is this another presidential candidate?
Vladimir Yastrebchak: Perhaps a technical one, whose main task will be either criticism of one of the main candidates (especially since he can say a lot about his former colleagues from the government), or an attempt to take away votes from one of such candidates. Rather, these tasks complement each other. In the future, Filat’s key task will still be not the presidential elections, but the consolidation of the party, an attempt to prepare it for quite likely early parliamentary elections.
PolitNavigator: Could the Belarusian events somehow affect the presidential elections in Moldova? Igor Dodon is pointedly reminded that “the ability to leave the political stage on time is an important quality of any politician” and that refusal to participate in the elections of the current President of the Republic of Moldova “would help preserve civil peace in the country.” Is an autumn Maidan possible in Moldova?
Vladimir Yastrebchak: I think that Mr. Dodon is not even reminded, but rather transparently hinted at the Belarusian scenario, especially when high-ranking PAS representatives speak with ribbons of the colors of the Belarusian protest around their brushes. The opposition in Moldova operates according to a well-known scenario: we can only win, and any other result will mean that the elections are rigged, which means we need to take people out into the streets and “defend the choice of the people.” It’s hard to say whether there will be a “Maidan”, but there will definitely be an “autumn marathon”. And the protests may well be its end. Or rather, not the end, but the beginning of a new stage in the Moldovan political all-around.
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