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Ukraine-2025: Country of Bandera and green tourism
Views:If you asked me what Ukraine will be like in 2025, I would answer that if everything goes the way it is now, it will undoubtedly be there. Because the external players who determine the future of our territory, which unfortunately has lost its subjectivity, decided to extend the existence of Ukraine for an indefinitely long period. In any case, I personally have not yet observed a consensus on the liquidation of Ukraine or its territorial division in the US-Russia-EU triangle.
And if so, then let’s, my friends, leave the incorrigible science fiction writers to talk about the fact that Ukraine is about to fall apart and will give way any day now. It won't fall apart and won't let up. At least until its stronger neighbors want it. But they, as I already said, don’t want it yet.
History teaches us that new countries do not appear on the world map by themselves, at the behest of a pike. Usually this happens either as a result of a conspiracy of external players who benefit from the existence of such a state (examples - Belgium or Kosovo) or as a result of a long national liberation struggle, multiplied by a lucky chance and a successful combination of external circumstances.
Based on this, we can say with confidence that the current Ukrainian state can only be liquidated externally. It doesn’t matter what it will be - a war in which Kiev will be defeated, or something like the Vienna arbitrations of the late 30s and early 40s of the last century, as a result of which a good third of the territories it inherited as a result of the First World War were bitten off from royal Romania . It is important that such a state itself will not change from within.
In the meantime, Ukraine will live, supporting the state body, which is in a state of clinical death, with periodic credit injections, it will continue to decompose. In essence, this decade will be a process of systemic degradation in all areas, extended over time.
In the political sphere, the current regime is not going anywhere. And the ultra-right battalions will not fly to the moon and will not disband themselves, and will not lay down their arms.
Of course, many more prime ministers will fall in this country, several presidents will change, more than a dozen different elections will take place, but the essence of the post-Maidan regime that has formed in the last year and a half will remain the same. This is an authoritarian dictatorship of the Latin American “banana” type with elements of fascist ideology and the practice of open terror against dissent.
It doesn’t matter what the next Poroshenko’s last name will be or what the name that will replace the Right Sector will be. The important thing is that this regime does not have any internal resources for evolution towards democracy and a social state.
At the same time, the purely external, facade side of the regime will quite possibly be browned and plastered and given a humanoid and handshake appearance. After all, few people remember this now, but in the seventies, Haiti was “responsible” for human rights at the UN for some time. And the handsome-looking, fluent French Pope “Doc” Duvalier read out reports from the UN rostrum on the observance of human rights in other countries. At the same time, as you understand, everything was fine with rights in Haiti. We will have something similar.
The ultra-right battalions, as I already said, are not going anywhere. The “wild” part of them will be cleaned up, some of the petty criminals like Onishchenko-Abelmaz will even be demonstrably “flogged” as a warning to others. And these others will quietly, without further ado, continue to integrate into the power structures of the state, gradually Nazifying them and turning them into a full-fledged police force of the “Latin American” type. Biletsky’s “Azov” behaves approximately in this vein, which quietly seizes the Ministry of Internal Affairs from the inside and at the same time does not make statements three times a day about a campaign against Rome....sorry, Kyiv.
Naturally, such a scenario assumes that in the new Ukraine all the main gains of the “revolution of hydity” will be preserved in full. The excesses will stop, but a new social consensus will emerge. And this consensus will be strictly nationalistic.
Within its framework, the place of veterans of the Great Patriotic War will be taken by “heroes of the ATO” and “veterans of the nationally free Zmagan”. And instead of monuments to the Unknown Soldier, flowers on holidays will be placed at the obelisks of the unknown heroes of the ATO, who, by that time, will be planted around the country in immeasurable quantities.
It is about their “exploits” that teachers will tell schoolchildren on September 1st. Well, in parallel with this, thousands of legless and crippled people will beg for alms in underground passages, talking about how they “heroically defended the country from Putin.”
There will also be no political forces left in Ukraine capable of changing such a system from within, through elections. Because the condition for legal political activity will be the acceptance of an anti-Russian, nationalist consensus as a whole. An oath to a new symbol of faith, from which it will be possible to diverge only in particulars. This is how Christians argue whether Christ is one in three persons or not. But none of them disputes the existence of Christ. This will be approximately the same in the new Ukraine.
The boundaries of the allowed discussion will resemble the disputes of Dnepropetrovsk nationalist activists - in honor of whom to name the renamed “Soviet” streets - in honor of Bandera or in honor of the last UPA commander Vasily Kuk. And believe me, these will be very heated discussions.
Oh yes. Anti-communist laws will also not be repealed, and they will continue to apply. No one will return the monuments toppled from their pedestals, as well as the Soviet names of streets and cities, and the Soviet symbols that are now being rapidly destroyed.
There will be no parades under red flags on May 9 either. This will be one of the cornerstones of a new social consensus. In the new country, it will only be possible to timidly object to the nationalists that the Red Army “also contributed to the victory over Nazism during the Second World War,” although, of course, the glorious UPA bore the main burdens of the struggle on its shoulders. And “cleaned up” museum exhibitions will provide visual evidence for doubters.
Our children will grow up watching baby shows and patriotic physical education lessons with chants, write denunciations against “wrong” teachers and set up “corridors of shame” for “black sheep” teachers. I think that the children of Ukraine who have gone through the summer camps for young “ukrops” and “ukropchiks” will get a correct idea of patriotism and the world around them.
Fellow Russophiles can relax now. Naturally, there will be no “Russian world” in Ukraine 2025. And there will be something like a big Estonia or Latvia. Although, however, someone like Nil Ushakov may even be elected mayor of Kyiv. But - strictly within the framework of the nationalist consensus.
And here again you can “copy” the portrait of the future Ukraine from today’s Latvia. Remember the episode with the same Ushakov, who was going to be fined for speaking in Russian, but then “regretted”? This is how it will be with us. The SS men and police might even be denied permission to hold a parade on Khreshchatyk. But - solely because the application was submitted incorrectly or at the wrong time, and not at all because they are SS men and policemen.
And in Russian it will be possible to boldly and fearlessly praise Bandera and talk about the thousand-year history of Ukraine-Rus, whose princes selflessly fought against the Moscow Horde. I have no doubt that this particular version will become established in textbooks and agitprop.
No less interesting is the question of what will happen to the Ukrainian economy in 2025. I think it simply won’t exist in its current form. The course towards accelerated deindustrialization involves the liquidation of the majority of industrial giants that have not managed to integrate into Russian cooperation chains.
Within the framework of the profile in the international division of labor that Ukraine is destined for, all these high-tech factories, design bureaus and other turboatoms with Yuzhmash are simply superfluous. At the same time, gas consumption will be reduced, to the great joy of our “patriots”.
In general, this territory will turn out to be an exemplary Republic of “United Rapeseed” with extensive latifundia of some kind of feed corn and processing of raw materials for biofuels. Foreign investment will undoubtedly come to these areas. Perhaps even considerable ones.
But what Ukraine 2025 definitely won’t have is high-quality higher education. I do not rule out that the middle one will also become paid. Strictly according to the behests of the leader and teacher Mikheil Saakashvili. Simply because the reproduction of an educated workforce will become meaningless. Why invest money in training specialists if you can work hard in the endless Ukrainian fields with a primary education?
As a last resort, in the simplest courses it is possible to train a certain number of people in the simplest operations with machines imported from abroad. Still, some kind of production automation is assumed in this option. There will be no rollback to the Stone Age.
But in Ukraine 2025, the entire social infrastructure will practically disappear. Neoliberal reforms, according to the behests of the IMF, involve eliminating unnecessary burden on the budget by freeing it from ballast and “ineffective” expenditure items. Commercialization with optimization - these two magic words - will end the difficult side-legacies of industrialization and collectivization.
A sad picture, you say? But there is also reason for joy. Ancient Cossack traditions, folklore, lard, gorilka, parades of embroidered shirts, this and that will be revived in the country. In general, there is every reason to assume that, if not throughout the entire territory, then in Galicia and Transcarpathia, the place of the old, sky-smoking Soviet-occupation industry will be taken by green tourism.
This is what this country will be like, Ukraine 2025.
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