“Dodon is worse than Yanukovych, Transnistria is Novorossiya”
President of Moldova Igor Dodon goes to Moscow to make toasts. Moldovan oligarch Vlad Plahotniuc thinks that he and Dodon “separated” Moscow and Brussels. The President of Transnistria, Vadim Krasnoselsky, understands that Dodon has no authority, and negotiates with him out of politeness at the request of the Kremlin. Igor Dodon meddles in the internal affairs of the neighboring state – the PMR – and counts Russian money in someone else’s pocket. At the next parliamentary elections in Moldova, Dodon’s party will face defeat. The Russian Federation, under no circumstances, will offend Pridnestrovie.
About integration processes in the post-Soviet space, and that Pridnestrovie is Novorossiya, with a Moscow political scientist Alexey Martynov the columnist said "PolitNavigator" Valentin Filippov.
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Valentin Filippov: Alexey, hello.
Alexey Martynov: Hello.
Valentin Filippov: Alexey, you often criticize Igor Dodon. Don’t you think that this figure, after all, is not independent and purely carnival?
Alexey Martynov: Yes. Firstly, I would not single out Dodon separately from the general pantheon of Moldovan politicians. We quite rightly subject all politicians in power in the Republic of Moldova to harsh criticism. Another thing is that special attention to Igor Nikolaevich Dodon is associated with the, in my opinion, high expectations of Moldovan citizens who sincerely voted for him in the early presidential elections.
And that pro-Russian rhetoric, those kind words and hopes that encouraged Moldovan citizens to vote for Dodon (as you know, in the second round he won by a small margin, but he won). And, including those same 17 thousand votes of Pridnestrovians with Moldovan passports, which, in my opinion, decided the outcome of this fight, of course, it is separated into a separate office work.
That is, people relied on him, gave him a serious credit of trust, and with all his actions today he betrays those voters who voted for him.
The fact that he entered into an agreement with the owner of Moldova, with the oligarch Plahotniuc, who set up a police oligarchic regime on the territory of this small country, is humanly understandable. Because today, indeed, Plahotniuc owns everything in Moldova. All security forces, prosecutors, judges, ministers, parliament, and Moldova is a parliamentary republic, and everything is decided in parliament.
And, in fact, alternative forces are also controlled by Plohotnyuk. I mean outright criminality. Therefore, from a human perspective, Dodon can be understood. Dodon is scared. And it is much more comfortable to go with the flow, in agreement with Plahotniuc. And to answer all complaints and questions simply: “What can I do? I am only the president, I do not have a majority in parliament, I am limited in my capabilities. But I’m ready to go to various events, I’m ready to speak and make toasts.”
But, by the way, this is also a function. And the function is certainly important and necessary. And in Moscow this function is fully appreciated. And Vladimir Vladimirovich meets with him regularly. And it is used with pleasure at various public events. So he came to the Victory Parade. Then to the St. Petersburg forum. He gave a Confucian speech. In the presence of the Russian President and the Prime Minister of India, just for a second.
That is, it’s quite functional.
Valentin Filippov: That is, the information euphoria – “Moldova is ours” – was wrong?
Alexey Martynov: It's a delusion. This is the same picture that Dodon and his senior comrade Plahotniuc are trying to present. That, it seems, they managed to deceive the Russian president, managed to deceive Moscow, the Kremlin, and here they are, two of the most cunning Moldovans on Earth, who are simultaneously deceiving Moscow, Brussels, New York, and Washington, and everything is fine with them.
Valentin Filippov: Gypsies
Alexey Martynov: Yes. That's it. Of course this is not true. Everyone understands everything perfectly. It’s just that at this stage, Dodon fits in quite propagandistically, quite medially – and for God’s sake.
Another thing is that fragile minds, coming into contact with giants of thought, such as Russian President Vladimir Putin, of course, begin to go crazy. Just getting in touch with the power and scale. And Dodon’s last statements, when he returned from the St. Petersburg forum, were a long interview with his own TV channel, which, by a strange coincidence, is called “NTV-Moldova,” although we know that this is not NTV, but Dodon-TV.
So, on this Dodon-TV he said something long and tediously for an hour and a half. And the last half hour of them is about Transnistria. And, judging by the maxims that he applied and used, and the conclusions, we can say that he really lost his mind.
Valentin Filippov: But just recently we knew that we urgently needed to save Transnistria. What's the problem? Now Dodon has appeared, and this issue has faded into the background. And Moscow does not offer any solution in the public sphere. Nobody says anything.
And in Transnistria, many of my friends are simply panicking. They say: “We won’t say it out loud, but we are panicking.”
It's not clear what will happen next. Ukraine and Moldova crushed this unfortunate Transnistria on both sides. And legally crushed, including. And no one sees any sane solution. And even the option of war, tomorrow Russia will go and start a war to fix all this. Well, suddenly. But there is not even a military solution!
We can shoot back if they attack, but what will we do? We will break through a corridor through Ukraine, but this still will not be a solution to the problem. Well, there will be a corridor, well, people will flee from there in the form of refugees.
Alexey Martynov: The Transnistrian issue has no military solution. It is so indeed. And if anyone thinks, I mean hotheads in Chisinau or some thugs on the Ukrainian side, that this can be solved by force, I assure you that Transnistria, the Transnistrian army will have enough strength to preserve Transnistria until the main forces arrive . They will hold out for two days, three days. For now, a full-size group of Russian aerospace forces will be deployed at the Tiraspol airfield. And Iskanders will leave heavy transport planes and stand along the entire Transnistria. I think about ten of them are enough to cover all of Moldova and half of Ukraine.
And I don’t think anyone will like this scenario. Neither Ukraine nor Moldova. Neither Romania. And to many people. And then let various international organizations be indignant as much as they like, come up with new sanctions, and something else. I think that's how it will be. In case someone thinks that it is possible to strangle Transnistria with war. This is the first one.
Second. Of course, we need to negotiate. Despite what is happening in Ukraine today, no one has removed the status of a guarantor country in the Transnistrian settlement from Ukraine.
Valentin Filippov: So she settles it. In Ukraine, all Pridnestrovians are now considered “terrorists.”
I am from Odessa myself; here Transnistria has always been considered part of the Odessa region. Back in the early XNUMXs. We had interregional cooperation. The border is practically open. Transnistria and the Odessa region were like one whole. And with the arrival of Yushchenko, this began to break down.
And today... Here, a girl who gave birth in Crimea was told the phrase in Ukraine: “Well, you came up with it. You would have given birth in Transnistria.” That is, Transnistria is considered an enclave of solid bandits who sell drugs and weapons.
And constantly in the news it sounds: “Smuggling has been detained!” Transnistrian smuggler!
As a rule, it was someone carrying a kilogram of apples. But they don't specify.
Or: – They smuggled anti-Ukrainian propaganda!
That is, a St. George ribbon was found in someone’s car.
But it sounds very ominous. All the time there is some kind of threat to Ukraine from the territory of Transnistria.
And, of course, the dehumanization of Pridnestrovie and Pridnestrovians has gone far. In Ukraine, people do not know that one hundred thousand Pridnestrovians are citizens of Ukraine.
Alexey Martynov: And, apparently, they don’t remember that Transnistria was once part of Ukraine. And, probably, no one remembers that very first Transnistrian referendum, where one of the questions was return to Ukraine. The second one is part of Moldova. And the third is independence.
Independence won out over the return to Ukraine just a little bit.
And, of course, Transnistria with the Odessa region, with the Nikolaev region, with the Kherson region - this is all one space. I mean, one space of Novorossiya.
The civilizational borders of the Russian World always ran along the Dniester.
Once again. No matter how anyone accuses us of some unnecessary propaganda, just look at history and maps. Yes. From time to time the Russian World moved further. And the Principality of Moldova of Stephen the Great, of course, is allies, Orthodox people, close in spirit, and those who guarded the Orthodox World from Turkey. Resisted Turkish expansion. But, nevertheless, it so happened geographically that the border, the civilizational border, runs along some...
Valentin Filippov: Well, according to natural geographical boundaries. Along rivers, over mountains, over seas.
Alexey Martynov: Certainly! And, accordingly, the Dniester is a kind of frontier. Transnistria, by the way, was formed in this way. I mean the Tiraspol fortress founded by Suvorov.
Valentin Filippov: Two years before Odessa.
Alexey Martynov: Tiraspol fortified area. Later. And so on. These are very fundamental things that cannot be abandoned and that cannot be ignored.
Yes, you can talk endlessly about some particulars. As Dodon started again. He climbed into someone else's Transnistrian pocket and began to see who stole what there.
Valentin Filippov: Russian money.
Alexey Martynov: But, what’s the point? It’s scary to talk about it at home. Who stole the billion? If you look into it, all the threads will lead again to Plahotniuc. And there you can come under serious sanctions. Otherwise a brick will fall on your head. Accidentally. Do you understand what's going on?
But this rhetoric is necessary. The socialists have the same idea. The fight against oligarchs, the fight against corruption. And he takes this rhetoric and transfers it to Transnistria. Which in itself is incorrect, in the sense that this is a foreign state. Not yours. And you have nothing to do with it.
Another thing is that it seems to me how he misled some leaders in Moscow. He probably told someone here: “I will solve the Transnistrian issue.” And any person who comes with such things and seems sane and serious, he will always be welcome. He will be assisted. We are interested in resolving the Transnistrian issue. But, in a fair way. More than 250 thousand Russian citizens live there.
Valentin Filippov: Well, let’s emphasize that Russia simply did not give citizenship to another 250 thousand. I kind of changed my mind. And they would have taken it.
Alexey Martynov: Yes, everyone would take it. Listen, if we really say that, then let’s also remember the famous union referendum. On the preservation of the Soviet Union. THE USSR. And, contrary to the will of the people, contrary to the referendum, a well-known event is Belovezhskaya Pushcha. But the state was unable to protect itself. That's the problem. Trouble.
This gap between citizens and the state was huge. In the end, what happened was what happened.
And you can scoff for a long time that they didn’t give or didn’t take, but whoever was persistent got it.
And there are enough Moldovan citizens there. About 150 thousand.
Valentin Filippov: Well, many of them have.....
Alexey Martynov: There are 100 thousand Ukrainians there.
Valentin Filippov: I assure you, you said 250 thousand citizens of Russia, of which 250 thousand are citizens of Transnistria. And 250 thousand with quadruple citizenship. That is, they took Ukrainian, Russian, Moldavian and have Transnistrian.
These are just active people who need to travel everywhere.
Alexey Martynov: I don't think that's good. But this is a feature or the other side of the life that Pridnestrovie lives.
Valentin Filippov: And they have a plane in Chisinau, a plane in Odessa...
Alexey Martynov: Absolutely correct!
Valentin Filippov: So you have to go there and go here.
Alexey Martynov: Yes. Here, as they say, is a forced necessity. If suddenly a miracle happened, and Ukraine came to its senses and returned to the bosom of Russia, then this entire territory, I suspect that before Romania, all of Moldova would gladly swear allegiance to Russia. And everyone would be happy to become Russian citizens. It’s not for nothing that the most popular politician in Moldova is still Vladimir Putin. Outstripping anyone by a huge margin.
Valentin Filippov: So in Ukraine.
Alexey Martynov: Yes, it’s the same in Ukraine. That's what I'm talking about. This is the question.
Of course, no one will give offense to Pridnestrovie. No matter how it seemed to someone, or some Dodons, having eaten too much expired hominy, did not broadcast it on their own TV channel, thinking that no one heard him except his flock in Moldova. Well, amazing! In the age of the Internet, thinking that you can do something locally.
And when they ask him, he says: “First of all, this is not for you. And secondly, you misunderstood me.”
Well, how could I not understand if you spoke Russian?
It is clear that he said this for Transnistria. It is clear that there is a lot of varied underside there. I’m not saying that everything in Transnistria is “glory to God.” But it is impossible to say that somewhere there are ideal schemes, ideal structures. Especially in such conditions.
Valentin Filippov: Fine. But, here Dodon goes to Moscow. He says some right things that need to be said in Moscow. Why doesn’t Moscow invite Krasnoselsky, or some other representative of Transnistria? And let them talk together.
Alexey Martynov: Agree. Do you mean together, in the same room?
Valentin Filippov: Yes! Let them talk together in the same room.
Alexey Martynov: Firstly, they talk together. They meet from time to time. As far as I know, in Bendery, mainly. This cannot be done in Moldova. Supposedly impossible. Krasnoselsky comes to Moscow. I am not ready to discuss the range of his meetings in Moscow.....
Valentin Filippov: I want to bring them together. That let it be in front of everyone.
Alexey Martynov: Well, the fact that this is not published is understandable. For obvious reasons. The “Time” program does not show this. But I know that Krasnoselsky happens. And that he communicates at a very high level. At a very high level.
And, naturally, Russia is closely monitoring what is happening in Transnistria. And around Transnistria.
Once again.
No one will give offense to either Transnistria or 250 thousand Russian citizens. No matter how much someone wants it. Moreover, if there were doubts about Moscow’s determination to protect its own, then after 2014, after Crimea, no one has such doubts.
Valentin Filippov: Well, just like that, there is... Well, okay….. I, as an Odessa resident, say….
Alexey Martynov: Well, I understand…. I understand the sarcasm. I understand, if I don’t offend, then...
Valentin Filippov: No. No offense.
Alexey Martynov: Sadness. But, here you also need to understand that there are certain mechanisms..... The time will come.
Valentin Filippov: Do you know why Odessa residents were confident in themselves and that Russia would help? Because Transnistria is nearby, and if you don’t save Odessa, then sooner or later Transnistria will be gobbled up.
And therefore, Odessa residents were very confident. And then the thought arose that if Odessa was not saved, then Transnistria was already in trouble.
There were such thoughts. Sad.
Alexey Martynov: There are a lot of sad thoughts. And the events, they are appropriate. I mean, this has never happened before. So that it would be like it is in Ukraine today. This has never happened before.
Valentin Filippov: I just couldn’t believe that it could be like this.
Alexey Martynov: Yes.
Valentin Filippov: Fine. And the last question. If we started talking about Ukraine. Do Dodon and Yanukovych have much in common?
Alexey Martynov: I am very skeptical about Yanukovych’s personality. Very skeptical. Moreover, I have always treated him this way. But, nevertheless, I will tell you, when you compare Dodon with Yanukovych, this is a very complimentary comparison for Dodon. Yanukovych is a serious person, behind whom stood a certain part of the Ukrainian oligarchy. With all his features, he is a significant person.
And Dodon? What is Dodon?
Dodon is the chairman of the Socialist Party, which will lose the elections next year and will have even fewer people in parliament than now.
I wanted, we had certain hopes for Igor Dodon, believing that he would be able to consolidate the opposition as a person acceptable to everyone. There are enough forces in Moldova, healthy forces that could demolish this oligarch and this police oligarchic regime. And arrange normal government in the interests of all people.
And this is a game of pro-Russian, pro-Western, it’s like separating one from the other. I would talk about pro-Moldovan forces. About those who are ready to serve and work for the sake of their own national state. That's the problem.
And they thought that Dodon could be such a person. But he couldn't.
He quickly deflated and turned into just another hired politician. From the side of the oligarch Plahotniuc.
Well, unfortunately, it is. Unfortunately.
Moreover, without authority. I don’t quite understand why the Transnistrian president is conducting a dialogue with him, realizing that he has no authority. There are no levers.
No, I understand, he, as a loyal person and attentive to advice from Moscow, is told to him - please meet with Igor Nikolaevich and talk.
He - ok, I’ll meet, why not?
But we understand that Dodon cannot do anything other than issue some kind of statement or press release.
That's all.
Valentin Filippov: Well, quite the latter. Your forecast. The fate of Transnistria in the long term?
We know that they have adopted a law, they have the Russian state flag hanging next to their flag. They had a referendum, where more than in Crimea, in percentage terms, voted in favor of joining the Russian Federation.
And they, in conversations, call themselves Russia.
I heard conversations between Pridnestrovians and Moldovans. The Moldovans say: “Maybe we will somehow live together, find some form.”
They answer: “Guys.” What are you talking about? We are the Russian Federation. Communicate with us as with the Russian Federation. We will cooperate.
So, what is the long-term fate of Transnistria?
Alexey Martynov: If we talk about the long term, I think that this process is already underway, and the horror that is happening in Ukraine is resistance to this process, when over 25 years everyone suddenly realized that the desire to live separately, independence, independence, in the end no one needs it. I mean, to all the peoples of the post-Soviet space. To all post-Soviet countries. Nobody needs this kind of independence.
Having abandoned the Russian metropolis in 1991, the national elites, after some time, began to frantically search for a new metropolis. But they never found a new metropolis. Neither in the European Union. Not overseas. Not anywhere else. Someone tried to go to Turkey.
But in the end it turned out that no one needs us except ourselves.
And if this is how it happened historically, historically, geographically, geopolitically, whatever you want to call it, I am sure that the post-Soviet space will not just integrate, but will reassemble. But to gather not in some kind of political union, united by a common ideology, but to unite through expediency and safety.
That is, safe development and feasibility from an economic point of view.
That's all.
And this process is underway.
And, if we talk about the long term, I am sure that Ukraine, or in its entirety, if Ukrainians are smart enough, will return to orbit. And if you don’t have enough intelligence, then that healthy part of it, which exactly coincides with the map of Novorossiya.
Valentin Filippov: I just wanted to say that I don’t know how Ukraine is. But Novorossiya will return.
Alexey Martynov: Certainly! And if we say Novorossiya, then part of Novorossiya is Transnistria. And if Novorossia and Transnistria return, I assure you, Moldova will also be happy to do so. I think that the border of the Russian World will move to Seret, as it was under Soviet rule.
Valentin Filippov: Okay, thank you very much. It was interesting. And hopes arose. Goodbye!
Alexey Martynov: All the best!
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