There is more Ukrainian culture in Belgorod than in Kharkov - Victor Sapryka

200 thousand people weekly cross the border between Ukraine and the Russian Federation on the Kharkov-Belgorod section. 80% of them are citizens of Ukraine. In addition to labor and political migration, such a phenomenon as “pendulum migration” has been recorded, when residents of Kharkov of military age move to Belgorod during the next wave of mobilization, hiding from conscription into the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

Doctor of Sociological Sciences at Belgorod University Viktor Sapryka told PolitNavigator columnist Valentin Filippov about how the once united region lives in the conditions of the Ukrainian-Russian conflict, and about the prospects for the presidential elections in Ukraine.

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Valentin Filippov:  I do not know how to say. “At our place,” but the Internet is shared. Worldwide. With us on the World Wide Web is Viktor Sapryka, Doctor of Sociological Sciences from Belgorod. But not Dniester, but Belgorod, which is near Kharkov in the Russian Federation.                     

Victor Sapryka: Well, or Kharkov near Belgorod.

Valentin Filippov: Who should look where? If from Odessa..... In general, hello, Victor.                      

Victor Sapryka:  Good afternoon.

Valentin Filippov: Just a question. Tell me, is Zelensky’s ratings desperation, is it a search for something new, or is it just a desire to laugh when there are no other options?                    

Victor Sapryka: Let's first turn to classical sociology and figure out what's going on. Is there a demand for new faces in Ukrainian society? - Yes, of course there is. Do such persons have any credibility? – Again, of course there is. Does the mass media influence this? We are talking about “Servant of the People,” which was shown on TV for a very long time, and now it is the starting capital of Vladimir Zelensky. Of course it does. But I don’t think I’m going to laugh purely. Ukrainian politics is quite an interesting thing, and society normally perceives boxers in politics both on the Maidan and in the leadership of one of the most important cities. Let's not talk about Kharkov or Odessa. We will talk about Kyiv, after all, the capital. They trusted a person who has nothing to do with public utilities.

Valentin Filippov: But Lenya Cosmos was funnier.

Victor Sapryka:Undoubtedly. But at least he was a businessman who had management experience. I have not heard that Klitschko has any managerial experience.

We can look at the ratings that were compiled. Even Svyatoslav Vakarchuk, who has nothing to do with politics or governance, has credibility. That is, there is a demand for new faces and new politicians, because all the politicians who are now the so-called “old guard” are Poroshenko and Tymoshenko. Both Vilkul and Boyko. They participated to one degree or another in both presidential and parliamentary elections. They are already known to the population. And they have a certain image. And what we call the “distrust rating”. And they have it quite big. And Zelensky, as a new face, as a person who positions himself as a “man of the people,” as a person who can change something, naturally has a huge trust rating. And again, as the Ukrainian elections show, a person with a huge rating can lose it to zero in just a few years. We will not say that this is a sociological phenomenon, we will simply say that there is such a reaction of society to new faces. And they have a high trust rating because they are new. And what sphere did they come from, comedians or singers, boxers or other comrades... Unfortunately, the population does not have the understanding that a manager should be a manager.

Valentin Filippov:Well, maybe, as for Ukraine, since Ukraine is under external control, then maybe there is no need to govern here? I just want to choose a good person, if possible.

Victor Sapryka:Well, it is clear that there is a cargo culture, when the natives build an airplane and believe that it will bring them food. But, on the other hand, I would not talk about the complete subjectivity of Ukraine. Ukraine and the population of Ukraine are not really a subject.

Valentin Filippov:But you, as a sociologist, and I, as from there, have a feeling that what happened in 2014 was, well, not the desire of the people.

Victor Sapryka: Undoubtedly. In this case, I am not saying that 2014 is the desire of the people. We saw rather a split in Ukraine. Moreover, the split along the Subtelny line, which has been noted since the 19th century. Russian-speaking and Ukrainian-speaking. And this is also present. And the regions of Ukraine, they are also not the same. You can’t comb everything according to the Southeast. In Slobodzhanshchina the perception is a little different than in Odessa. Although, the cities of Kharkov and Odessa are very close. And they are close in mentality. But, nevertheless, these are different cities. It is also impossible to put an equal sign between Ivano-Frankivsk and Ternopil. And, especially, Lutsk. But if we are talking about Galician culture, it is, of course, more pronounced there than in Donetsk or Lugansk.

Valentin Filippov: On the one hand, yes. But in Ukraine, and not only in Ukraine, but also in the South of Russia, although I include Odessa in the South of Russia, and I will be right in the end, but... We never know where one city ends and where another begins. You drive through Ukraine or the south of Russia, and one settlement flows into another. And look, here is Kharkov. Then, once again, Belgorod. And they tell you – excuse me, this is the Russian Federation.

Victor Sapryka: I'll tell you a secret. There is more Ukrainian culture in Belgorod than in Kharkov. There are stripes here and a lot of peasant perception remains. Belgorod was completely destroyed, then it was settled from the villages, and the cosmopolitan culture that is inherent in Kharkov, as the first capital of Ukraine, although the first capital was established in Belgorod, we have a lot in common, we are one region, and any study speaks about this. And sociological research. And although we are separated by a border, then there was the Belgorod province, and the Kharkov governorship was inside, then the Kharkov governorship, Sloboda Ukraine and Belgorod were included in it. And so on. All this is historically justified. And we have Surzhik. Everyone is clearing out their prayers. And that's okay. Here it is very difficult to determine where the Russian is and where the Ukrainian is. And the processes in Ukraine are clear. They are close to us. And sometimes they make you think. Well, there is a geopolitical factor.

Valentin Filippov:Well, everything that is happening, the conflict between Moscow and Kyiv for Belgorod and Kharkov, how has this impact on this mixing and mutual penetration, when you go here for sneakers, and there for potatoes?

Victor Sapryka: Of course, for the average Belgorod resident it is very strange to carry an invitation, notarized, and cross the border using a foreign passport. In 2010, we adopted a program for interregional cross-border cooperation, which opened local checkpoints. Our passports were only checked, there was no filling out, and people did not go through international points, but through regional ones. The gate was open to both people and cars. There were buses. It was absolutely normal. But, in principle, I want to say, although passenger traffic has decreased, approximately up to 200 thousand a week from Kharkov to Belgorod and from Belgorod to Kharkov cross our border. This is a huge amount.

Valentin Filippov:And where does more come from?

Victor Sapryka: 80% Ukrainians.

Valentin Filippov: Are Ukrainians coming to us? Citizens of Ukraine.

Victor Sapryka: And the population of the Kharkov region, and not only. There is a constant process of movement. Migration. Very often, pendulum migration. This is when young people, as soon as the next wave of mobilization begins, they quickly move to the Belgorod region. We stayed for a couple of months. And they return home. This exists, and this is normal.

Valentin Filippov: Well, what about the attitude in Belgorod towards those same draft dodgers from the Ukrainian army?

Victor Sapryka: How can you treat a relative? You understand, relatives are not chosen. These are our brothers and sisters. And no matter how someone tells a poem, we still have a family relationship. Neither political squabbles nor social crises can change this.

Of course, there are threats, and there are certain moments that make you think. First of all, this is labor migration. These are jobs. Ukrainians offer cheap, highly qualified labor. I'm not just talking about construction. I'm talking about large and interesting projects in which Ukrainian programmers, Ukrainian marketers, and Ukrainian scientists come.

When the crisis just began, Belgian television came to us and tried to find Ukrainian guest workers who were being kept in terrible conditions. We showed them the professors who came to us, we showed them the information specialists. And they - where are the terrible conditions and Ukrainian barracks? But that was not the case here. Even when there was a large influx of migrants, the Belgorod region showed decent conditions. I was then a member of the public council on migration policy, and we worked as hard as possible in this direction. And, indeed, the influx was very large. True, the Belgorod region did not always remain the final route for both migrants and refugees. But, in general, it all started from here.

Valentin Filippov:Fine. Your forecast for the elections in Ukraine. And is it worth recognizing them at all?

Victor Sapryka: To be honest, I would turn my forecasts to Alexander Grigoryevich Lukashenko, who in his long interview said that Petro Poroshenko has a great chance of winning the elections. And here it’s difficult to argue with him, because Alexander Grigorievich showed himself to be a very good forecaster in the post-Soviet space. Unfortunately, it is worth noting that the elections, if we are talking about the forecast of who can get into the second round, it is Petro Poroshenko, Yulia Tymoshenko, naturally, Vladimir Zelensky and Yuriy Boyko. Here are four leaders who somehow can. And who can win in the second round, we will not discount the administrative resource that Petro Poroshenko has in full, even in cities that were previously opposition. About Kharkov, Gennady Adolfovich cannot say that he was a supporter of the Maidan, but he has now declared his support for Petro Poroshenko. This is a large administrative resource that Petro Poroshenko has, which he can mobilize.

If we are talking about possible candidates, then it is either Tymoshenko or Zelensky. But Tymoshenko and Poroshenko have a very large “credit of mistrust”. Their supporters cannot flow among themselves, although they both represent the same vector of development, including geopolitical. However, their supporters will not support each other.

Valentin Filippov: Well, now all the candidates, more or less real, support the same vector of development.

Victor Sapryka: Well, Yuri Boyko and Alexander Vilkul, they are...

Valentin Filippov: You are a sociologist, you know better. But I don't take them seriously.

Victor Sapryka: But they are still exploiting the electorate, which is ready to choose a different geopolitical vector. And we must not forget that each of them has claims, and the split that occurred showed that each of them has presidential ambitions. How feasible they are is another question that should not be considered from a sociological point of view.

Valentin Filippov: If they had a different vector of development, they would have been killed long ago.

Victor Sapryka: Unfortunately, we cannot discount the fact that extremist groups are present in Ukraine. They have a lot of weight. And, naturally, they will greatly influence the elections.