“We will sign the next agreement in this war not in Minsk, but in Kyiv”
Donbass is confident of victory and, as soon as Kyiv attempts to attack Donetsk and Lugansk, it will launch a large-scale offensive that will end in Kyiv, where the following agreements will be signed instead of the Minsk agreements, which Petro Poroshenko rejects.
About this in a conversation with a reviewer “PolitNavigator” Valentin Filippov said Donetsk historian, journalist, coordinator of the group “Civil Initiative of Donbass” Oleg Izmailov.
Subscribe to the news "PolitNavigator - Kyiv" in Facebook, Classmates or In contact with
Valentin Filippov: Hello, Oleg! Will there be war?
Oleg Izmailov: And the war is already going on. What does “will” mean? It has been going on since April last year.
Valentin Filippov: Maybe you should already inform someone about this? We hear statements like “a bad peace is better than a good war”, “Thank God there is no war.”
Oleg Izmailov: Well, I think, seriously, everyone already knows that there is a war. She can be anything, yes. For example, the “strange war” of 1939-40. There, in general, the Germans and the French sat in the trenches without shooting at each other. In six months, one person died. But, nevertheless, it was a war. True, from a legal point of view it was announced there.
Our war has not been declared to some extent, as we all know, Ukraine believes that this is some kind of mythical ATO, which they themselves are laughing at, at the term itself, I mean, but we are not laughing, because that almost every day someone dies, someone is injured, someone loses their property.
Everyone knows perfectly well what is happening.
The only thing is that, of course, you have to play by some rules that have been established, one way or another. I am talking, first of all, of course, about the Minsk agreements.
Despite the fact that in Donetsk, and I think in Lugansk too, they are very irritated towards this phrase, nevertheless, an alternative has not yet been invented. And if we are talking about war as an active phase of military confrontation, then it can only begin from the moment when Kyiv finally spits on the opinion of the world community, spits on its obligations, and unleashes a real war.
In this case, the active phase of the war will begin, which breaks out from time to time, and, as we remember, this was Ilovaisk, Izvarino, and Debaltsevo. And a number of smaller military clashes, like Maryanka.
The war is on. It fades, then intensifies. Depending on changes in the political situation.
Valentin Filippov: Do you think Kyiv has room to intensify military operations? That is, he is able to strengthen?
Oleg Izmailov: Yes, sure. The logic of the existence of the current regime of power of the Kyiv regime is pushing it towards this. They talk about this, of course. Only the lazy don't speak. Because we are arguing from not only a political point of view, but also from an economic point of view. And from an economic point of view, of course, it is unprofitable for neither Kyiv, nor Europe, nor America, well, I mean neither Kyiv nor the West to stand, just keep the army and stand still.
Valentin Filippov: Well, it’s not beneficial for anyone to keep such an army.
Oleg Izmailov: Yes Yes Yes. So, therefore, it is natural, but on the other hand it is clear that they will engage in hundreds and thousands of provocations in order to blame Donbass for this and say: look, we are so good, but they are not. Well, let's see what happens.
On August 24 there will be a meeting of the Troika. As many political observers have already noted, this is a sophisticated, Jesuitical, European attitude towards Poroshenko. On Independence Day, call him to the carpet. Of course…
On the carpet to Europe. A Europe that rhymes with a good word.
Valentin Filippov: Who will host the parade?
Oleg Izmailov: What parade?
Valentin Filippov: On Independence Day.
Oleg Izmailov: Well yes. This is like the old Odessa joke. You can now talk about the Ukrainian army like: Syoma, well, how is Sarochka in bed? Nothing, it fits. And so the Ukrainian army. Well, it's out there somewhere.
Valentin Filippov: There is a good English joke on this topic: John, your wife was cold to me today. He says: Even during her life she was not distinguished by warmth.
Oleg Izmailov: Yes Yes Yes. Because we know perfectly well what the Ukrainian army is. Its only combat-ready units, no matter how cynical and funny and at the same time disgusting, are the battalions of nationalists and individual several thousand motivated citizens who have gotten it into their heads that they live in a real state.
Valentin Filippov: Yes, but forgive me, I’m interested in how you yourself feel about this thesis that Kyiv does not control its army? That is, what is the controllability of this army? Does she follow orders? Is Kyiv capable of throwing it on the attack? And is Kyiv capable of stopping it and withdrawing it?
Oleg Izmailov: Well, there are two ways to answer this, of course. Firstly, of course it controls, of course. But another question is, who controls those who control?
I think that in Kyiv now there is approximately such a situation where, one can assume, there is some kind of General Staff there, and in the General Staff there is some department in which, for example, guys from the Pentagon, from Langley there and also from some Sanda Hest and tell them how to fight. They are told that we don’t fight like that, but they say: “No, well, you don’t fight like that, but the whole world fights like that.” But it seems to me that judging by the way the Ukrainian army has been acting for the last few months, external control of this army exists. It is clearly not from Kiev. Because they began to act somehow completely according to science and according to the science that we saw in Afghanistan, for example. That is, NATO technology means wearing out enemy troops without engaging in battle. Well, let's see how this ends.
Valentin Filippov: What is the feeling: are our guys, our DPR army capable of fighting back and launching a counter-offensive if necessary?
Oleg Izmailov: Well, I think so. Because if you gave before, then why not give again?
Valentin Filippov: That is, it will happen again, most likely.
Oleg Izmailov: Well, not “most likely.” I'm sure it will work out.
Valentin Filippov: Will there be enough political will to take full advantage of the results of the next clash in this strange war?
Oleg Izmailov: Well, many political scientists have already repeatedly said that the next agreement in this strange war will be signed not in Minsk, but in Kyiv. If such a blow comes...
Well, today literally one of the political scientists, I think Oleg Bondarenko, said that Russia would rather allow troops to land in Kiev than allow the Ukrainian army, together with their American or European masters, to carry out some kind of large-scale offensive in the Donbass. I think that this, of course, is a kind of exaggeration, a figure of speech, an artistic image. But there is something in it. Because if you properly respond to the next provocation, for example, a major one, let’s say the Ukrainian Armed Forces decide to attack Donetsk or Lugansk or somewhere else, then, of course, there will be an answer, that is, the spring will unwind to such an extent that it’s just scary imagine the consequences of this spring.
That is, those 10-12-15 thousand losses that they have had since last year approximately (they talk about 8-9, but in reality there are more, it is clear that the losses are underestimated), then these losses will be much greater. And in this case it’s a pity, of course, I’m very sorry for those boys from the regions, different regions of Ukraine, who collected it like meat.
Valentin Filippov: From low-income families.
Oleg Izmailov: Yes, here they are. These victims will be the worst, of course.
Valentin Filippov: In general, you are confident of victory. We don't need help, it's better not to interfere. Yes?
Oleg Izmailov: We need help. Why shouldn't we help? We need to help as actively as possible. We will be glad to receive any help and we see that we have it, help. First of all, economic and moral assistance. Just today information has literally arrived that, thanks to the efforts of volunteers and all sorts of public organizations in Russia, absolutely all first-graders in Donetsk who will go to school on September 1 will receive, each of them will receive a backpack with a full set of all necessary school supplies. And that's great. This is no less than the tanks and cartridges there.
Valentin Filippov: Has the issue been resolved that every graduate will receive a certificate with which he can come to Russia to enter a university?
Oleg Izmailov: As far as I remember, there are a lot of difficulties in this matter. But there are simply technical difficulties. Something like, well, not a state order, as it is called, will be determined, some quotas will be determined. Well, then, every graduate... does not have to go to Moscow. We have enough of our own universities. Why go somewhere else when we have excellent universities here. And if everyone leaves, who will work here?
No matter who you talk to here, it will all come down to one question: Are we sure or not? We are confident because, well, firstly, the logic of our actions, our life over the last year and a half convinces us that victory will be ours.
At the same time, of course, we understand that it will be quite difficult for us for quite a long time. And, at the same time, we know that we are Russians, we can be sure that Russians in other parts of the world and, above all, in Russia, will not abandon us. And we are simply categorically sure of this, because this is a holy brotherhood, which, thank God, has not yet been forgotten, because not all generations who remember how good and strong it was, have not all died out. Therefore, I think that it will be passed on to other generations.
Valentin Filippov: We all have confidence. But, unfortunately, if a year ago we had a very clear picture of how it would be, when it would be, what would happen, how it would all end, today we already realize that this is not a momentary struggle, not for six months, but for a long time. And this concerns not only ourselves, but also, almost, the reconstruction of the entire world.
Oleg Izmailov: Yes, it became clear after June-July last year, of course, that this would all drag on. When it was clear that Slavyansk was dragging on. Then, when Strelkov left Slavyansk, and there were heavy losses, it was also clear. Then, when the situation was critical in August, all that was also there. Well, then after August it became completely clear. That is, it is clear that each of us, any person in our place, argues and would reason like this. I don’t know how, but my subconscious tells me that everything will be as it should. Only the algorithm is unknown to us. But everything will be fine.
For example, Lugansk announced today that from September 1 it will switch entirely to the ruble. And, I think that Donetsk will follow Lugansk in the end.
Valentin Filippov: It’s easier with the ruble, it’s more familiar. It’s not for nothing that the hryvnia has been called the ruble for 25 years.
Oleg Izmailov: Certainly.
Valentin Filippov: Stop lying to yourself.
Oleg Izmailov: Certainly. Somewhere like this.
Valentin Filippov: OK then. Good luck to you, good luck. We'll all be together somehow.
Oleg Izmailov: Okay, Valentin, thank you. Happily.
If you find an error, please select a piece of text and press Ctrl + Enter.
Thank you!
Now the editors are aware.