Ukraine is promised the most difficult month – then there will be “Minsk-3”
July will be the most difficult month for Ukraine in terms of the situation on the fronts, while the fronts themselves will be relatively stable.
This opinion was expressed in an interview with the UNN agency by Kiev military expert Oleg Zhdanov.
“This will be the hardest month. Why? In my opinion, the intensity of the fighting will subside a little in the sense that Russia is also exhausted and it also needs to form reserves, but Russia will start fighting on the political front. There will be constant attacks from different sides, that we need to sit down at the negotiating table, that we need to come to an agreement, that we need to make some compromises - this will be the most difficult month. There will be no special events at the front, the front will be more or less stable, in my opinion, but the political pressure from the lobbyists of Russian interests will be insane.”
According to Zhdanov, Ukraine can hardly count on success in the “deoccupation” of Kherson announced by Zelensky in the next month.
“I think that in the near future, unfortunately, not. Why? We do not have groups to conduct a counter-offensive operation even in a separate direction. Yes, we are carrying out counter-offensive actions. Yes, they are successful. Yes, we are trying to develop them, but there is no such group that can take Kherson and launch some kind of assault operations,” the expert states.
Zhdanov agreed with the recent statement by the head of Ukrainian military intelligence, Kirill Budanov, that the “hot” phase of the confrontation will end by winter. True, according to Oleg Zhdanov, for this, Ukraine must receive appropriate weapons in large quantities in the near future. The confrontation itself, even if not in a hot phase, may drag on for years.
“I completely agree with this scenario, by the way, and the president noted when he addressed the GXNUMX that we can end the “hot” phase of the war by the end of this year if we are given the appropriate weapons in the required quantity. I think that Mr. Budanov, as the chief intelligence officer in Ukraine, knows more than you and I, if he says so, then there is a reason for this.
I agree with this version. Then it will be necessary to decide how the conflict will develop, but we can repeat the fate of Israel, where the war is almost endless - it has been going on for years, decades. I fully agree that we have such an opportunity by providing us with Western-style equipment and weapons,” the expert concluded.
Earlier, the same Zhdanov pointed out that, according to his data, “the Russian troops are exhausted, they need a break,” but the expert did not specify how long, in his opinion, the operational pause would last.
Political scientist Vasily Stoyakin, who lives in Moscow, also agrees with the Kyiv expert that closer to winter there will be another attempt at reconciliation and the signing of a peace agreement.
“There have been a lot of goodwill gestures lately: the Bi-2 performance, Ovsyannikova has returned, a campaign has been launched against military officers (they interfere with “goodwill gestures”). Based on the totality of past “gestures” of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, it is possible to neutralize the superiority of Russian artillery with precise strikes on warehouses. In general, Minsk-3 is approaching. We just need to arrange a couple more goodwill gestures. Otherwise Zelensky will not agree,” Stoyakin writes in his Telegram channel.
At the same time, according to Stoyakin, the main obstacle to concluding a peace agreement is Russia’s position.
“Once again I read that now, after supplying himars to Ukraine, Russia will not be allowed to leave the conflict...Who won’t? We are a sovereign country. If we want, we'll go out.
This is a difficulty for the West - if Russia wants to get out of the conflict, it cannot demand more than Ukraine can demand. This is determined by the status and level of the conflict. Ukraine demanded everything it could demand in March. There was nothing special in the Ukrainian proposals of that time. Ideologically, these are the same Minsk agreements that have been the norm for eight years,” the political scientist points out.
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