“There will be no Ukrainian scenario. There is no split among the elites and no war between the Kremlin towers.”
Two years and eight months is not the final term of imprisonment received by Alexei Navalny. In addition to a new trial in the case of insulting a veteran, the “fiery revolutionary” will face a trial of fraud, money laundering and embezzlement on an especially large scale. The point is that, while collecting donations for participation in the presidential elections, the person involved knew in advance that he had no right to run for this position.
Moscow political scientist and political strategist, professor of philosophy Oleg Matveychev told PolitNavigator columnist Valentin Filippov that the Russian authorities turned a blind eye to Navalny’s activities until he agreed to direct cooperation with the intelligence services of Britain and the United States.
Valentin Filippov: Our virtual studio is located in Moscow, visiting Oleg Matveychev, a famous philosopher, interesting political scientist, political strategist, and generally a very good, smart person. Hello, Oleg!
Oleg Matveyevich: Hello!
Valentin Filippov: I wanted to ask you about the latest events: about Navalny, about the riots... But I suddenly thought. Probably, in the logic of the Western scenario, it is necessary that we all mention the name Navalny, the court, the protests as often as possible. And for it to accumulate on the Internet. Mentions, mentions, mentions.
Aren't we all working on their script when we discuss, refute, even just name these names?
Oleg Matveyevich: On the one hand, indeed, you are right. They, of course, would really like for there to be conversations about Navalny, for them not to stop, and for all the networks to be filled with one continuous Navalny. And this is part of their script.
Another thing, let’s just say that our authorities and our people broke this scenario a little.
That is, in general, yes, they talk about Navalny everywhere. And in kitchens, and in networks, on TV. But the question is what exactly people say at this moment. And here it turns out that there is nothing good.
They thought they would lead people to protest. They thought about these millions. Navalny himself thought that no one would imprison him because he is a monument. And even when he was rude in court, he did not suspect, because at the end he was very upset when the real verdict was pronounced. And he, I think, will realize in the coming days what awaits him. And that even these 2 years and 8 months are not sugar either. Moreover, he realized that, in principle, no one is afraid to imprison him, and he still has a sentence ahead of him related to the FBK case, which is now under active investigation. Let me remind you that there are several elements of crime. On the one hand, there is fraud when he said that he would be a presidential candidate. Legally, as a convicted person, he could not be a presidential candidate, but he collected money for this.
The second is the theft of people's funds. That is, people donated to the fund for one purpose, and he spent it on personal needs. This cannot be done by law in any country in the world.
And the third is money laundering, when his employees with salaries of 50-80 thousand rubles deposited millions of money into his fund. That is, someone gave them cash, and they put it on their card, and from the cards they made “kind of donations.” Someone gave them cash. Naturally, all this will need to be established by the investigation.
Valentin Filippov: These employees also need to be attracted somehow.
Oleg Matveyevich: Yes Yes. They're all here. They were all summoned for interrogation, their computers were confiscated, all these card printouts were confiscated. The investigation is underway, it will take a long time, because the material has been carried out for many, many years, all these illegal operations.
And there, too, a sentence of at least five years “shines”, since it is clear that everyone will point to Navalny as the main one, as the organizer, as the one who provided all this. It is clear that there is also Volkov, who also bought himself a house in Luxembourg with money donated by these “losers,” Navalny’s fans. They send him money from all over the country, and he buys himself a house in Luxembourg. And, of course, Volkov will also be brought in as a defendant there. Well, Navalny won’t just leave, because he officially headed everything there.
Therefore, I think that the 2 years and 8 months that Navalny is now given to serve under the previous sentence will be added to it with another “five”, at least under the new sentences.
Valentin Filippov: I've heard that deadlines cannibalize each other. That is, five more are not added, but simply superimposed.
Oleg Matveyevich: It varies for different crimes. Something is absorbed, something is superimposed. Moreover, we will still see what the crime and charges in the FBK case will be. We don't know there at all. There could be fraud, there could be theft, there could be laundering. There may be three articles at once, or maybe two or something will be combined. That is, we'll see what happens in the end. But, in any case, it will not be limited to these 2 years and 8 months.
Now, I think Western countries will do everything to get Navalny out. They realized that they would not be able to organize protests. People don't marry him, people don't love him. And all their self-deceptions, when there are a hundred million views on YouTube, all this is exposed. Now Mediascope released a report just yesterday, in which all the numbers were multiplied, looked at, and so on. It turned out that Navalny’s film was watched in its entirety in a two-hour version by just over three million people.
Valentin Filippov: Sorry, but three million is a lot. Few people reach three million. I’m not sure, in my opinion, and Putin, with his addresses and communication with the people, is gaining somewhere.
Oleg Matveyevich: People mostly watch Putin on TV. Three million where from? This is also all over the world. There is some traffic from Ukraine, from Europe, from America, from Canada, and so on. They watched it in many places. There are a little less specific Russians. Still, this is not what they expected. They had it in their heads that he was everyone’s favorite, popular, that half the country followed him. They are victims of their own propaganda.
Valentin Filippov: About 2 years and 8 months. Navalny didn’t serve in the army, it seems? Or did you serve?
Oleg Matveyevich: No, I didn’t serve. He retired from the army, there are documents related to his decline, when they drew some kind of flat feet on him. Navalny’s father was friends with the military commissar of Moscow, just in the Odintsovo district, where he was registered. Everything was published at the time, when Navalny was just starting to take off.
Valentin Filippov: Well, here's how to join the army. 2 years and 8 months is theoretical, if there are no new ships, which, in fact, they can put pressure on our leadership. Say that guys, enough is enough, once. He realized, let him sit it out.
It turns out that it will be released in September 2023. And in March 2024 there will be presidential elections.
We know very well that all the Maidans, all the coups are not carried out without traitors among the authorities. Do you think the Russian government is strong enough? Are there any nuances there that would make someone play with the Navalny factor?
Is there such a danger that Navalny will receive support not only from the West, but also from some Russian government agencies?
Oleg Matveyevich: There was such a danger when Navalny was being promoted. This was the period from 2007-2008 to 2011-2012 inclusive, when many members standing around Medvedev were discussing the topic of Medvedev’s second term. They helped there, and a number of oligarchs were included, and there was a lot of help to Navalny then. But since then, that team is gone, those oligarchs are gone, and many of the ministers who were there have been removed from power. And the team, as such, does not exist. It is broken up, scattered across different banks and separate structures. She is separated. Yes, in fact, these people realized everything a long time ago and, moreover, Medvedev himself paid for his communication. Well, not personally, but indirectly. When there was a film about him, “He’s Not Dimon for You,” it was made as blackmail.
It was revenge that you, like, gave birth to me, Navalny said, you fed me, you paid me, and then you abandoned me. And I was left without money, without everything since 2012 and for several years under the pressure of criminal cases and everything else. Keep paying me.
But, since no one contacted him, he began to take revenge in this way.
Now, of course, there is absolute consensus. There are no Kremlin towers that are at odds. The question was never that anyone would patronize Navalny: “No, I’m for him.” Everyone in power understood perfectly well that this was an absolutely harmful element. The question was simply whether to touch this “shit” to make it stink, or not. At some point, they decided exactly this: “This substance is stinking, is it worth planting it somewhere so that there is an international “stink”, so that we have this “stink”?” - and so on. They didn’t touch it precisely for this reason.
Now he's completely overplayed. Well, okay, there he was in contact with Soros, with Browder, took money from them, made films. But he went too far, he actually began to voice the work of the British intelligence services. That is, the Americans and British write films for him in English, he makes a bad translation and just does the dubbing. When he began to actually voice operational information taken only from sources that the intelligence services could use. These are billings of telephone networks, these are various flights, people's addresses, these are databases that only go to them. When he began to work, essentially, for the special services, and even in an impudent manner to organize all this nonsense, like “I am Patrushev’s assistant. Ustinov, report to me the situation, I’m preparing a report”...
When this absolutely shameless impudence began to be broadcast, of course, everyone said: “Enough. We have felt sorry for him for too long.” He committed fifty violations. Two criminal cases, and both suspended sentences. There is nothing like this in the country. They have been sorry for too long, so, of course, the law must be applied. And that’s it, and the law was applied.
That is, there are no traitors. There is not and will not be a split within our elite or several Kremlin towers.
I worked a lot in the Kremlin and know too well how everything works there. With Putin, everyone functions and is engaged in their own direction and does not overlap. Therefore, the so-called towers, they cannot even theoretically be at odds, because they simply have different responsibilities: you deal with one sector, and you deal with yours, there is no overlap there.
Valentin Filippov: God willing. It’s just that, unfortunately, apparently, such a huge number of people are often presented as “working in the presidential administration.”
Oleg Matveyevich: There are actually a lot of scammers here. I saw business cards, I had them lying around somewhere for beauty’s sake. There is a woman’s business card, her last name, the Russian coat of arms and at the bottom the signature “AP President”. People know that “AP” is the name given to the presidential administration. But in this case, if the police take her, she could say that AP President is the name of the company of some of her LLC “AP President”.
Valentin Filippov: You can write “APashechka” and everyone will understand.
Oleg Matveyevich: Yes. There are a lot of scammers, but in fact, all the official information is on the Kremlin.ru website. All heads of departments, deputy heads, and so on are listed there. But if there is a desire, as they say, to figure out which department is doing what. This, in principle, can be easily done by understanding the functionality, and then you will not be confused about who can give some advice and who does not have the right to give it.
Valentin Filippov: Fine. Tell me if this situation is impossible. We have a lot of very smart political strategists who come up with absolutely amazing things. So amazing, as if for the first time. Just imagine. There will be presidential elections. And then someone says: “I came up with a brilliant move. We release Navalny, the people don’t like him, he is a criminal, we allow him to participate in the presidential elections, and Putin, of course, beats him miserably.”
Oleg Matveyevich: According to the Constitution, he cannot run for office.
Valentin Filippov: Maybe his wife will run for office.
Oleg Matveyevich: My wife, theoretically, yes, it can. In the archive, such a move could theoretically exist. For example, they will actually take a certain number of measurements and look at it. And then they’ll think: Let’s launch Yulia, and let her compete and get her 10%. This could happen.
And we saw how at one time, under Volodin, such a thing was allowed during the election of the mayor of Moscow. When, after calculating the ratings and seeing that Sobyanin had a rating of 70%, and Navalny had 6% or something like that, Navalny was released in Moscow so that he could participate. Yes, even by that time these trials were going on, arrests, everything was happening around him. And he mobilized his electorate so much, which gradually turned into 16 or 18% according to social research. And then he mobilized them so harshly that almost all of them came. And Sobyanin’s electorate was absolutely confident in Sobyanin’s victory, and they all left for their dachas. And it turned out that in the end Navalny scored 27%. Yes, this effect was due to a certain flaw in the plan. The idea was to win big, but the plan was not implemented.
During the presidential elections, I’m not at all sure that such a game will be played.
Valentin Filippov: I remembered Yanukovych and Tyagnibok, who fed Tyagnibok. And then it didn’t even come to the elections, because the coup began.
Oleg Matveyevich: The coup has begun, yes. No, the Ukrainian scenario does not threaten us here, because Ukraine has a number of oligarchs who also have their own media, each with their own understanding of how to work. And they believed that for them Yanukovych was the same equal as themselves, and maybe even less in importance, wealth and everything else. They bought a huge number of officials who could not carry out some orders, or carry out the opposite of their orders, and not carry out the orders of Yanukovych and so on.
Our system of power in Russia is more strictly established, and every oligarch knows that Putin is not equal to them, and he is far, far away the king at the top. And in the best case, you can meet with him once a year and report to him about how you are working for Russia, how you are increasing production at your factories, and so on. And each of them knows that if he just tries to move, finance something somewhere, get out somewhere, he will instantly repeat the fate of Khodorkovsky.
Valentin Filippov: According to Slepakov. “Putin is scary, I’m afraid of him, every time I see him I pee my pants.”
Oleg Matveyevich: Yes Yes. It is so indeed. Therefore, we do not have this oligarchy. I always laugh at our communists who say that in Russia there is capitalism and some oligarchs rule. This old name “oligarchs” has been preserved since the 90s. Out of habit, we call rich people this way, but who are not allowed to power in our country now. And in this sense, we have no capitalism. We have, whatever you want to call it, state capitalism.
Valentin Filippov: Most likely, yes.
Oleg Matveyevich: We now have about 70% state control over the economy and the banking sector. That is, all this, one way or another, is controlled by the state through joint-stock companies, through regulatory norms and other things, but it’s all one continuous control of the state.
Valentin Filippov: Fine. In general, it turns out to be very optimistic. I hope this optimism is not in vain. But I think there is still no need to relax. They will rock us.
Oleg Matveyevich: Let's not relax. They will definitely download. Now the pressure on Gazprom will begin. Green energy and full of all sorts of nonsense.
Greta Thunberg. Some international howls. Any other further provocations. All this will happen, but we need to remain calm and respond adequately to everything. And of course, understand that all this is of an international nature, that this is simply a fight against Russia, and there is no need to get involved in this fight under any circumstances.
Anyone who tries to fight against the president is, in fact, already, no matter whether he is personally connected with Western intelligence services or not, he, in fact, begins to work for Western countries. That's all.
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