Military expert about Ukrainian missiles over Crimea: “Kyiv is provoking Russia to a tough response”
Tomorrow Ukraine is threatening to conduct missile fires in the airspace over Russian Crimea. How will Russia respond to the threat? About the political dances of Ukraine that you want and crave, a columnist PolitNavigator Valentin Filippov, said a military analyst, member of the Izborsk Club Vlad Shurygin.
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Valentin Filippov: Vladislav, hello. How should Russia respond to possible missile firing by Ukraine over the territory of Crimea?
Vladislav Shurygin: First. Under no circumstances can I accept the term “Russian occupation”; I’m not ready to talk in these terms at all. Russia is a united, whole and powerful country. And, of course, in this case, it is obliged to protect its citizens wherever they are.
Accordingly, in this case, the territory of Crimea is inviolable, and any attempt to violate the territorial integrity will be suppressed. No one has any doubts here.
Valentin Filippov: From an international point of view, are any preemptive strikes on Ukrainian missile launchers possible at all?
Vladislav Shurygin: This doesn't make any sense. You need to understand that everything that Ukraine is trying to test are extremely limited systems that are presented as some kind of know-how, but, in fact, this is not even yesterday, but the day before yesterday. And it is quite obvious that Ukraine’s whole plan is to force Russia to react somehow.
In fact, we are not talking about missile launches, we are talking about provoking Russia at any cost to some kind of harsh reaction. Thus, try to regain the image of a sufferer in the eyes of the new American administration.
It is quite obvious that in the current situation, when their patrons in the United States have actually completed their activities and have been replaced by people who are more than critical of the “Maidan” and current Ukraine, Kiev, nosebleeds, we need to return to the status quo, which he has had for the last two years. The injured party, which is the object of Russian aggression.
The current shootings are also from the same opera.
The goal is to provoke Russia into some kind of harsh reaction and say: “Look, who are you trying to negotiate with!”
Therefore, accordingly, for us there is no talk of any preventive strikes. Time is on our side now. You need to understand that there is a sufficient number of air defense systems on the territory of Crimea. The most modern. So that any such threat that may be demonstrated by Ukraine, although I very much doubt that it will still decide to carry out any tests over Crimea, we have enough strength to stop all this on the spot.
By and large, I consider such attempts by the Ukrainians as some kind of good training for our air defense systems. Naturally, such actions by Ukraine cannot pose any military threat to us. Can civilians be harmed? This already depends on the skill of our air defense crews and our combat control systems.
I repeat, I believe that in the current situation Ukraine is unlikely to decide to conduct tests specifically over territory that is Russian.
Valentin Filippov: That is, you think that there is no point in stopping civil aviation flights at the beginning of December? In Simferopol, a plane leaves the airport every ten minutes, if not more often.
Vladislav Shurygin: I think that a certain line will be clearly drawn, it is somewhere around 100-150 kilometers from Ukrainian territory, which may be declared no-fly for some time, but this will not stop this air express over Crimea. This is completely obvious. There are no closures of Crimea, and there is no threat to Crimea for everything that Ukraine declares. These are political dances that must be taken quite calmly.
Valentin Filippov: Okay, what other inadequate steps can Ukraine take? Two Russian soldiers were kidnapped from the border.
Vladislav Shurygin: The most inappropriate thing she can do is try to provoke another military conflict at any cost. That is, Ukraine needs, bloody nose, to regain its image of a sufferer. Image of the injured party. Subjected to this bloody Russian aggression. All that Ukraine has been getting various goodies for the last two years. But the price here is too high. The current administration that is coming is not as loyal to Ukraine as the Obama administration. And in this case, the question of who will untie it will be the key one.
For Ukraine, of course, this thing is very painful. Moreover, against the backdrop of all the contradictions that currently exist in Ukraine. Therefore, there is a situation like that girl’s - she wants it and injects it.
On the one hand, such a conflict could theoretically, if it were successful, return Ukraine to that image and immediately spoil relations between America and Russia. But, on the other hand, any mistake could lead to Ukraine being isolated, the Europeans will be forced to very coldly step aside, as they have done more than once, and then the political crisis and economic crisis will inevitably lead to a complete upheaval of the situation in Ukraine. Of course they are afraid of this.
Valentin Filippov: A lawsuit has been filed in a Moscow court to declare the leadership of Ukraine illegitimate. Does this have any prospects?
Vladislav Shurygin: No. I don’t see any prospects in this matter simply because Russia, and this can be considered as a mistake, Russia recognized the elections that took place in Ukraine. Both presidential and parliamentary. Then, perhaps, it seemed to our politicians that if they recognized this, it would stabilize relations between Ukraine and Russia. But in fact this did not happen. But, thereby, this junta was legalized by us. Obviously, there is no prospect of a trial in this case.
Valentin Filippov: Have you watched the show - Yanukovych's speech in court?
Vladislav Shurygin: Well, I partially watched. There is no desire to sit for six hours and look at all this. Moreover, I understood very well who Yanukovych was and understood very well in what direction this would go. He, as always, showed his complete duplicity. He showed that he was and remains an absolutely weak leader. More precisely, a leader who has lost any respect not only from his enemies, but also from those whom he could consider as allies.
I repeat. This is the worst version of Gorbachev that you can come up with. Gorbachev in the situation of a thief and a person expelled from everywhere.
Valentin Filippov: It seems to me that further proof that Russia is a very democratic country is that Yanukovych is in Rostov, but no one has beaten him yet. Many people have a desire.
Vladislav Shurygin: This is a polemical question. Maybe someone will meet him someday, and he will get it. What can I say?
Valentin Filippov: And I also came to the following conclusion. I thought that crazy people shouldn’t be tried, but then I realized that if you put together a full court, prosecutors and crazy judges, it all looks very good together.
Vladislav Shurygin: If this is a court of madmen, then why not?
Valentin Filippov: Thank you very much for your comments.
Vladislav Shurygin: Fine. Good luck.
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