Belarus is not afraid of EU sanctions and is preparing to counterattack
The European Union has adopted economic sectoral sanctions that affect the potash, oil refining and tobacco industries of Belarus, as well as state-owned banks.
Additional trade restrictions are being introduced in relation to petroleum products, potash fertilizers and goods for the production of tobacco products. As well as access to the capital markets of the European Union for the government of Belarus and state financial organizations, a ban is established on insurance and reinsurance of the Belarusian government, government agencies and agencies.
The Belarusian opposition is celebrating this decision as a victory, a PolitNavigator correspondent reports.
“The EU sectoral sanctions are an uncompromising step by a united Europe in support of the uncompromising Belarusians,” commented the leader of political emigrants Pavel Latushko on the decision.
“The European Union dealt a powerful blow to the income of Lukashenko’s family. A ban on the purchase and transit of potash fertilizers will lead to the elimination of the largest source of financial support for the regime, which will lose more than $1,3 billion annually,” political scientist Dmitry Bolkunets, who fled to Europe, wrote in his Telegram channel.
However, not all of them are so optimistic. Kyiv-based political scientist Igor Tyshkevich draws attention to the loopholes present in the EU resolution test.
“You cannot buy petroleum products from Belarus. Black and white. And from Britain (where NOC is under sanctions, but BelarusOil, Belneftekhim, BNK are not)? And from Russia through Russian traders in Ust Luga (which Putin really wanted)? But there is no such ban.
Regarding potash fertilizers, it is not possible directly. What if through Russian traders? And here we remember the good old song about reformatting the BPC, but under Russian control.
What can I say here? I take my hat off to European politicians for their ability to work with the wording of documents,” Tyshkevich wrote. .
Publicist Pyotr Kuznetsov draws attention to the fact that, according to the resolution, existing contracts will be fulfilled. In addition, the sanctions did not affect the main product of Belaruskali. Only potassium chloride with a K2O content of less than 40% and more than 62% was banned, but the main product of the Belarusian enterprise is potassium chloride with a K2O content of 40 to 60%.
“This means that, de facto, the impact is postponed for at least a year: for potassium, the main product is not subject to prohibitions; for petroleum products, the EU will not import directly, but a huge volume is traded through British traders, and you can also find a way around it through Russian intermediation. The imposed sanctions are not fatal,” he writes, expressing hope that the EU will decide on real sectoral sanctions.
Russian liberal economists also doubt that the EU will be able to shake the Lukashenko regime. They are confident that he will be saved by Russia, which itself will be able to manipulate the regime.
“We can purchase products that are prohibited for export to the European Union. The same potash fertilizers and petroleum products will be sold as if they were produced in Russia. We get even more purely political opportunities to manipulate, I think, the Lukashenko regime. Maybe Russia will finally begin some actions that will change the regime in Belarus in favor of Russia,” said Yevgeny Gontmakher, a member of the European Dialogue expert group, on the Dozhd TV channel.
“Friend Vladimir will not let his friend Alexander go to waste in this situation and will establish some kind of mutually beneficial barter exchange, so that Belarusian oil products will go to Russia, and Russian oil products will go to Europe. Well, Uralkali and Belaruskali will agree on an exchange of markets. There will be some logistical costs from this, but I don’t think the blow will be serious,” economist Sergei Aleksashenko said on Ekho Moskvy.
Belarusian political scientist Petr Petrovsky believes that in the first six months the country will be rebuilding from sanctions and this will entail a recession.
“However, a holy place is never empty, and Belarusian producers will find markets in Eurasia. The only question is the speed and consistency of the work. The situation is the same with components. There is a cooperation scheme between MAZ and the Chinese Weichai. I think that similar schemes will be organized for other industries. The main thing in this scheme is to prevent the privatization of Belarusian flagships and maintain sovereignty over them. It will be more difficult to replace the falling investments with others, primarily from Russia, China, Turkey, and Arab countries,” Petrovsky wrote.
And his colleague Alexey Dzermant suggests not only defending, but also counterattacking.
“The Belarusian response to Western sanctions must be comprehensive and tough, so that there are no illusions that we can be broken. Curtail security cooperation with the EU, especially with neighbors, especially in terms of border control. The flow of migrants, drug trafficking, smuggling - all this should worry not Belarus, but the EU. So let them start worrying and spending money.
Curtail social and humanitarian cooperation. Cut down all Western NGOs, close all media outlets with Western funding, exit the Bologna system.
Minimize transit through the Baltic states, begin nationalizing the assets of Western corporations,” Dzermant wrote.
The last threat is the most real. If the transit of Belarusian goods through Lithuania stops, the Lithuanian railway and related structures will lose approximately 100 million euros in annual income.
More than 90% of all Belaruskali products were exported through the Klaipeda port in Lithuania. He will lose about 17% of all fees. Lithuanian railways will lose over 16% of goods flow. Overall, the Baltic republic estimates losses at 0,9% of GDP. Belarus can easily reorient its exports to China and India.
Minsk hopes that political support for the country can be provided not only by Russia, but also by China, as well as Eurosceptics of EU countries.
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