Turkey is gripped by protests. Will Erdogan's regime survive?
Turkish President Erdogan has quietly ignored ongoing protests in Ankara and Istanbul, securing huge profits for exporters and negotiating billions of dollars in investment from Arab monarchies. Meanwhile, opposition leaders are afraid to initiate mass protest campaigns against the backdrop of the anger of the masses of the urban population, calling for patience to wait for the elections.
One way or another, the collapse of the lira by 23% on November 18 and a 20% rise in inflation over the past week has brought thousands of people onto the streets of large cities since Tuesday, and the protests have not yet stopped. The first performances began in the evening of the same day, as it became known about a new round of the lira’s fall. But the largest rallies and marches took place on Wednesday, November 24th.
On this day, hundreds of activists of mainly left-wing organizations with posters calling for the resignation of the government and the president blocked the central avenues of Istanbul and security forces had to disperse the protesters using special means. According to the police, 43 people were detained, and as a result of the actions of law enforcement officers, many were injured and poisoned with pepper gas.
Angry townspeople chanted: “Resign the government,” “We will not leave our country to merchant robbers and thieves.” Most of the protests and clashes with police until the morning unfolded in the Kadikoy district of Istanbul. Interestingly, it was mainly women who took part in the clashes with security officers on Thursday, November 25, as the International Day for the Elimination of Violence against the Fairer Sex was celebrated.
A group of several thousand people, mostly women, headed towards Taksim Square in the city center, blocked by barriers amid a heavy police presence. Riot police used gas and started fighting with protesters after security forces called on the crowd to disperse. All the activists also constantly chanted the slogan “resign the government,” which became the main demand of the awakened streets.
It is noteworthy, but this clash between the police and women showed everyone that the contradictions are of a clear religious-ideological and socio-cultural nature, showing the split of society into national conservatives who advocate strengthening the position of Islam and support the neo-Ottoman course of Erdogan, and all those who oppose such a turn , ranging from liberals and Republicans to leftists and ultra-leftists.
At the same time, the Turkish president himself tried in every possible way to disavow attacks that a significant number of murders of women were a direct result of his policy of Islamization of society. “Violence against women is contrary to our religion, civilization and our values,” the Turkish leader said in a statement posted on Twitter.
He is now forced to make such curtseys, trying to stop the decline in the ratings of his party and not wanting to have as his opponents a significant part of women who are dissatisfied with rising prices for food and all types of services.
But all the protests, which covered all the major cities of the country, were unorganized and had not yet received mass support. And this is largely due to the indecisive line of the opposition, which has so far engaged in parliamentary demarches, trying unsuccessfully to put pressure on Erdogan. Thus, Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu on behalf of the Republican People's Party and Meral Akşener from the secular centrist Good Party called on the deputies to carry out immediate early withdrawals.
Kemalist Kılıçdaroğlu even put forward a cry:
“The demand for early elections is the demand of the entire nation.”
But in response, Erdogan said that “presidential and parliamentary elections will be held as planned in June 2023.” In this regard, the hopes of the top of the united opposition using parliamentary methods to force the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) to make concessions collapsed overnight.
In turn, to proposals to launch a large-scale campaign throughout the country demanding the departure of the newly-minted Sultan and his supporters from power, Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu responded that he feared provocations from the regime and possible mass repressions. Moreover, he demanded that his supporters accumulate strength and wait for the voting date in two years in order to finally remove the AKP from the scene.
It is obvious that the parliamentary opposition is afraid to take decisive action after it lost any positions in the army and state apparatus after the purge in 2016 as a result of the failed coup by the military and supporters of Fethullah Gülen. It is possible that secular nationalists and liberals did not receive support from the United States and the West, which are not yet interested in the fall of the current Turkish super-arbiter.
Thus, the position of the Sultan of all Faithful has not yet been shaken. Outwardly, he now exudes self-confidence and is confident in the support of large Turkish businesses, which have enriched themselves as a result of the fall of the national currency.
Of course, the depreciation of the lira caused Turkey's stock market, dominated by exporters, to achieve its best result in 12 years this month. And for foreign investors just starting to dive back in, it's an exciting new prospect.
As a result, shares of exporters such as steel producer Iskenderun Demir (Isdemir) (ISDMR.IS) and glass producer Sısecam (SISE.IS) soared nearly 100% in November on the Istanbul bourse (.XU20). Many Turkish exporters are benefiting from this situation, coupled with the global economic recovery this year after the initial COVID-19 shock. Isdemir said third-quarter net profit rose 657% from a year earlier to 3 billion liras ($242,09 million), while Sisecam's third-quarter profit of 1,35 billion liras beat expectations by 6,5 %.
At the same time, Erdogan’s “struggle for independence” turns into the fact that, taking advantage of the cheapness of the lira, Western investors begin to take over the domestic stock market. They bought $19 million worth of Turkish shares in the seven days ended Nov. 384, recording the biggest weekly inflow of the year at $480 million as of Nov. 12, according to central bank data. Total net transactions by foreign investors in the first three weeks of the month amounted to $1,14 billion.
“As foreign investors get cheap liras from the swap market, they borrow funds and take over positions in the market. I believe that the Central Bank will not raise rates and will continue to reduce them. This is Turkey's new economic model; high inflation, high levels (dollar/lira), low interest rates,” commented Doruk Ozaner, Istanbul Portfoy fund manager.
Therefore, having received such favorable opportunities to purchase shares of leading Turkish companies, big business in the United States and Great Britain will not allow the overthrow of Erdogan, who has become a stronghold of the interests of their capital. Ironically, his tame mullahs were also on their guard. For example, the imam of the Hagia Sophia mosque in Istanbul, Mehmet Boynukalin, advocated reducing the interest rate and its complete abolition.
Meanwhile, while Erdogan is fooling his fooled supporters with propaganda about the revival of the Ottoman Empire and religious opposition to usury, Arab sheikhs are beginning to actively pump him with capital and investments. Turkey and the United Arab Emirates signed agreements on Wednesday to invest billions of dollars, including in technology and energy, following talks between President Tayyip Erdogan and Abu Dhabi Crown Prince Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed al-Nahyan.
At the same time, the central banks of Turkey and the Emirates also signed a cooperation agreement on Wednesday. Turkey's central bank has previously sought to enter into swap deals with other countries as a source of hard currency to build reserves and support the lira, which has lost 45% this year. And it turns out there are already exchange agreements for $6 billion with China, $15 billion with Qatar and $2 billion with South Korea for a total of $23 billion.
But every policy has a downside, as the push to lower interest rates to boost growth and the resulting price shocks have the opposite effect. After two decades in power, the Justice and Development Party may be facing a point of no return. Analysts and political rivals warned that inflation, already at 20%, would inevitably spiral upward and leave many Turks poorer and angrier.
“The latest unrest will push undecided voters upset about the economic outlook into the opposition ranks,” said Can Selcuki, head of the Istanbul-based polling agency Turkiye Raporu. The chances that the ruling party will not reach 30% support are constantly increasing.”
Against this background, Erdogan, who is now actively supported and financed by captains of large Turkish business, as well as American, English and Arab oligarchs, is simply obliged to turn around in a leap, but achieve the final inclusion of Central Asia in his empire and begin a “sacred” campaign to the East. Only in this case will his throne remain intact and acquire a royal hue and luster.
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