The West is casting to replace Poroshenko
On the eve of the presidential elections in Ukraine, the West is selecting a more suitable candidate to replace Petro Poroshenko. Political scientist Vladimir Volya stated this in a comment to a PolitNavigator correspondent.
According to him, now in both the South-East and the West one can observe several candidates at once who will position themselves as spokesmen for the interests of these regions. In the case of the South-East, both main contenders - Yuriy Boyko and Vadim Rabinovich - were previously called by the press friends of Petro Poroshenko, and therefore can participate in secret agreements with him.
“So far we see fragmentation of the electorate of both central-western Ukraine and south-eastern Ukraine. If we talk about the central-western one, then the fragmentation here is much greater than the electorate of the south-east.
We can say that there are at least two politicians who are now the main representatives of the southeast. Yuriy Boyko dominates, he is ahead, and I think that he is quite suitable as a base candidate. As for Rabinovich, it is also difficult not to take into account his potential. It is noteworthy that support for Boyko is greater in Donbass, and for Rabinovich in Odessa. Therefore, the question here is whether one of them will be, Rabinovich – charismatic, Boyko – dry, but more businesslike. Either they will agree, and there will be one candidate, or there will be some other, third candidate, who will be supported by both Boyko and the Opposition Bloc, and Rabinovich.
I think that now there is a game going on to demote all more or less rated politicians, absolutely everyone, given that the president’s rating is falling, everyone will also be demoted - so that there is no gap.
The question here is whether Petro Poroshenko will go to these presidential elections, and so far, as I understand it, there is no final answer.
The West is conducting a kind of casting, looking closely at different candidates, those who have declared themselves, their ambitions, and those who have not yet declared. Autumn (October-November) will be decisive for determining the list of various candidates from the electorate of various parts of Ukraine.
Therefore, I think, then the question will be decided whether Poroshenko will participate in the elections, and if so, for what purpose.
If a candidate arises for the West who will be consolidated and generally meet the interests of the West and Russia, then there will be an generally interesting candidate.
If there is a candidate who will better satisfy the goals of the West, one who will contribute to the return of loans, who will not be disingenuous, like the current government, on the issue of reforms, then it will be clear that he will be favored. It won't be Poroshenko.
In this case, Poroshenko has two options: either he participates to lose, but hopes to win, or he participates simply to participate,” the expert argues.
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